A global demand for electricity is increasing at its fastest rate in years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heat waves and the growing adoption of EVs (electric vehicles), for example.
The analysis is in new report da IEA (International Energy Agency). According to the study, renewable energy continues its rapid rise, with solar photovoltaic on track to set new records.
According to the IEA, the global demand for energy is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2,5% in 2023. This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the exceptional recoveries seen in the wake of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The strong increase in global consumption is expected to continue in 2025, with an increase of 4% again.
As renewable sources are also expected to expand rapidly this year and next, with its share of global electricity supply expected to increase from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025.
“The amount of electricity generated by renewables around the world in 2025 is expected to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. It is expected that the Solar PV alone meets about half of global electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025 — with combined solar and wind energy supplying up to three-quarters of growth,” the report noted.
As per research, despite sharp increases in renewables, global power generation from coal is unlikely to decline this year due to strong demand growth, especially in China and India.
As a result, carbon dioxide emissions from the global electricity sector are stabilizing, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025. However, considerable uncertainties remain: Chinese hydropower production has recovered strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low.
If this upward trend continues into the second half of the year, it could curb coal power generation and result in a slight decline in global power segment emissions in 2024.
Energy demand in countries
Some of the world's largest economies are seeing particularly strong increases in electricity consumption. Demand in India is expected to rise 8% this year, driven by strong economic activity and severe heatwaves.
China is also expected to see significant growth in demand of more than 6% as a result of robust activity in service industries and several industrial sectors, including the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
After falling in 2023 amid mild weather, U.S. electricity demand is expected to rebound this year by 3% amid steady economic growth, rising demand for cooling and a booming data center sector.
In contrast, the European Union will see a more modest recovery in electricity demand, with growth forecast at 1,7%, after two consecutive years of contraction amid the impacts of the energy crisis.
In many parts of the world, the growing use of air conditioning will continue to be a significant driver of energy demand. Several regions faced intense heat waves in the first half of 2024, which increased demand and put electricity systems under pressure.
“The growth in global demand for electricity this year and next is expected to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies, as well as the impacts of severe heat waves,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of IEA Energy Markets and Security.
“It is encouraging to see the share of clean energy in the electricity mix continue to increase, but this needs to happen at a much faster pace to meet international energy and climate goals,” he highlighted.
According to him, at the same time, it is crucial to expand and reinforce networks to provide citizens with a safe and reliable electricity supply – and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased demand for cooling on power systems. .
With the rise of artificial intelligence, data center electricity demand is attracting increasing attention, highlighting the need for more reliable data and better inventory measurements.
The report emphasized the wide range of uncertainties related to data center electricity demand, including the pace of deployment, the diverse and growing uses of AI, and the potential for improvements in energy efficiency.
According to the IEA, better collection of electricity consumption data from the data center sector will be essential to correctly identify past developments and better understand future trends.
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