The price of solar panels could increase by up to 30% by 2026.

The global solar energy market has entered a new price adjustment cycle, with photovoltaic module manufacturers indicating that the upward trend – which began in late 2025 – is expected to intensify throughout 2026.

According to exclusive information obtained by Canal Solar Alongside companies, the prices of solar panels have already registered an initial adjustment of between 10% and 15%, which occurred between the end of December 2025 and the beginning of January 2026, and the expectation is that new increases will be announced in the coming months.

Matheus Cerutti, Head of Sales Latam at AstronergyHe explains that the price adjustment surprised part of the market due to its timing, occurring between Christmas and New Year's. "At the end of last year, there was already an expectation of an increase, but the move ended up happening faster than many anticipated. This first adjustment was already around 10%," he stated.

According to the executive, this move represents only the first step in a structural adjustment. "I believe there could still be another increase of around 10% by or shortly after the Chinese New Year. It's a scenario analysis, not an absolute certainty, but the signs point in that direction," he explained.

The VAT reduction will further increase prices.

Cerutti also drew attention to the expected end of the VAT (Value-Added Tax) refund, a tax incentive granted by the Chinese government to exports. Currently, the benefit is around 9%, after having already been reduced from levels close to 13% in previous years. "When this incentive is withdrawn by the Chinese government, the impact will be direct. We are talking about another 9% increase in price," he emphasized.

According to Cerutti, the most recent contracts from manufacturers in the sector have already incorporated clauses for automatic price adjustments in case of changes in export incentive policies, which signals that the market is already anticipating this scenario. "I believe that the accumulated increase throughout the year could reach something between 25% and 30% compared to the prices of Chinese photovoltaic modules practiced until the end of last year," he concluded.

In addition to fiscal policy, Cerutti explains that the photovoltaic sector is facing a profound reorganization in its production chain. According to him, the Chinese government has imposed capacity control guidelines, especially in the polysilicon segment, which has contributed to a price increase of nearly 50% for this input throughout 2025.

Meanwhile, he explains that manufacturers have been phasing out older production lines, especially those using outdated technologies like PERC, to concentrate investments on new generations of modules, a process that requires significant capital and reduces the available supply in the short term.

Furthermore, the rising costs of critical raw materials, such as silver, copper, and aluminum, have also put pressure on the cost per watt of the modules. These materials are essential for everything from cell metallization to electrical structures and connections.

Even with all this, Cerutti points out that solar panel prices remain below historical levels. "Since January 2023, when the sharpest drop began, prices have fallen by about 65%, reaching a minimum level. Even with these expected increases, it still doesn't reach the same level as the prices practiced in 2022," he emphasized.

Silver, aluminum, and transmission are driving up module prices.

Along the same lines, Felipe Santos, LATAM regional director of Osda SolarHe highlighted that the upward trend in solar panel prices did not begin now, but has been building since the end of 2025, driven by a combination of structural and macroeconomic factors.

According to him, one of the main drivers of this increase was the record appreciation of silver, an essential input in the manufacture of solar cells. The metal is used in the metallization of the cells, responsible for the conductive tracks, and its price surge had already been putting pressure on costs since the end of last year.

Another relevant factor cited by the executive is the rise in the price of aluminum, which is the third main component in the manufacturing cost of solar panels, behind only the cells and the glass. "The price of aluminum has skyrocketed, and this directly impacts the cost of the module," he explained.

In addition to the increase in input costs, Santos explained that the appreciation of Yuan The exchange rate against the dollar also puts pressure on prices, since costs are in local currency and manufacturers need to adjust the dollar values ​​to obtain the same amount of Yuan.

The executive also highlighted that the stricter control of production capacity imposed by the Chinese government, especially in segments such as polysilicon, contributes to an environment of less oversupply and greater price discipline. "In addition to the measures adopted to stabilize the industry and make it healthier, these macroeconomic factors have been strongly impacting module prices since the end of last year," he concluded.

The current scenario demands planning from Brazilian companies.

Danilo Borrigueiro, commercial director of DMEGC SolarHe assessed that the prospect of an increase of more than 20% in the prices of photovoltaic modules is not a one-off event, but a reflection of a structural upward trend throughout the entire global supply chain.

“In December 2025, we reached a historic milestone: the cost of silver paste in high-efficiency cells (US$0,0170/W) surpassed that of the silicon wafer itself (US$0,0169/W). This scenario is aggravated by the pressure from other essential commodities, such as glass and gold, which continue to appreciate strongly in early 2026,” he said.

Borrigueiro also highlighted macroeconomic factors that amplify this pressure. According to him, the Chinese Stock Exchange reached its highest level in the last ten years, signaling an economic environment that directly impacts the global photovoltaic chain.

"Beyond the inputs, we are monitoring a strategic restructuring in China. The government and industries are actively reducing surplus production (oversize"To adjust supply to the real demand of the global market, prioritizing the financial health of the ecosystem," he emphasized.

According to the commercial director, this self-regulation movement seeks to ensure that the prices charged by Tier 1 manufacturers remain at a level considered healthy, an essential condition to guarantee the financial viability of the sector and the continuity of investments in technological innovation.

"For the Brazilian market, the scenario demands planning, as we have entered a cycle where security of supply will be the major differentiator," he emphasized.

Commercial adjustments and pressure on the production chain

Ricardo Marchezini, Country Manager Brazil at Risen EnergyHe highlighted that the recent increase in the prices of strategic raw materials, such as silver, has led to a significant rise in the production costs of photovoltaic modules.

According to him, this movement affects the entire global supply chain and, inevitably, the Brazilian market as well. "This scenario has forced all manufacturers to readjust their prices, which is also reflected in the prices charged by local distributors," he said.

According to the executive, this is "a widespread industry movement, resulting from factors external to the distribution chain, which reinforces the need for commercial adjustments to maintain sustainability and continuity of supply to the market," he emphasized.

Along the same lines, Samir Moura, General Manager of Canadian Solar BrazilHe explained that, since the end of last year, polysilicon producers have been adopting a series of measures to regulate production levels. According to him, there is a coordinated effort by the industry to reduce the use of installed capacity, postpone expansions, eliminate informal prices, and create idle capacity, given the high volume of accumulated stocks.

According to Moura, these measures are being adopted with the aim of reducing the financial stress faced by polysilicon producers and the entire solar panel production chain, including some of the largest global manufacturers. According to him, this movement is one of the main factors putting pressure on module prices. A second element contributing to this scenario is the increase in the cost of metals used in the manufacture of the panels.

Silver, an important component of photovoltaic cells, reached record prices, mirroring the rise in the price of gold on the international market. ""Aluminum has also gone up; it's another important component that's gaining value and putting pressure on the production costs of solar panels. So, we've been monitoring this market since December," he said. 

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