O ONS (National Electric System Operator) presented, in a virtual meeting, the PAIR/SKIN (Medium-Term Electrical Operation Plan) of the without (National Interconnected System).
Among the highlights of this edition is the indication that the Photovoltaics will have a very significant percentage growth, more than doubling the installed capacity in the 2021-2025 horizon.
By the end of 2025, for example, it is estimated that SIN's capacity will total 191,3 GW, of which 36 GW will come from wind and photovoltaic generation plants.
“With the consideration of plants with the Transmission System Use Contract (CUST) signed and access opinions valid or in progress at the ONS, the amount of renewable generation reaches values of 52,4 GW, with the largest portion of difference, around 13,2 GW, are from solar plants”, said the ONS in a note.
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In this scenario, particularly for the North and Northeast regions, the forecast is that compulsory generation (inflexibility plus renewable generation) will exceed the local load plus the capacity of large interconnection trunks, which could result in flow restrictions for the Southeast/Center -West.
Total investments
The total estimate of the contributions needed to carry out the works listed in the ONS planning is R$23,9 billion. Of this amount, R$16,3 billion corresponds to new works proposed in this study cycle alone.
Furthermore, around R$2,9 billion in investments come from transmission auction No. 02/2021, held on December 17th. The indicated set of works represents 7.951 km of new transmission lines and 20.046 MVA of increased transformer capacity in new and existing substations.
The report also estimates a growth in demand of 20% in 2026, when compared to the maximum demand recorded in 2020. According to the ONS, this observed increase is not coincidental – a concept used specifically to estimate demands that occur at different times and months.
