The scenario of above-average rainfall in Southeast/Central-West subsystem next summer brings good news to electricity consumers.
The forecast is that the levels of stored energy in hydroelectric reservoirs will remain above 70%, according to the Weather, a meteorological consulting and weather forecasting company.
According to the entity, the return of intense and frequent rains in October and November in the Paraná River basin has already marked the positive beginning of the wet season, raising reservoir levels and easing energy prices in the short-term market, as well as the pressure on the national electrical system, given that this basin has the largest installed energy generation capacity in Brazil, including the Itaipu, Furnas and Porto Primavera hydroelectric plants.
“From the second half of December until the end of March, the forecast is that the rains will continue to be heavy and intense, especially in the Southeast/Central-West subsystem”, highlights meteorologist Ana Clara Marques, from Climatempo's Energy vertical.
She recalls that the beginning of the wet season, from the second half of October and in November, was very favorable to the electricity sector, as it rained above average, intensely and frequently, especially in the headwaters of the Paraná River basin, which includes the Grande and Paranaíba rivers.
“This brought relief to the system, as the lowest reservoir levels are usually recorded in October and November, and enabled a reduction in the price of energy, from the ceiling to the minimum level, in a short space of time,” he notes.
According to the Climatempo specialist, the recovery of the reservoirs was very fast this year, and at this moment they have already reached the flow levels, which should continue given the forecast that the rains will continue into next summer.
Compared to the months of October and November 2023, when around 300 mm of rain fell in the Paraná River basin, more than 500 mm has already been recorded in the same period in 2024.
In the North region, which concentrates around 35% of Brazil's hydroelectric potential, there is a delay in the return of rain, but the forecast is that, in the summer, rainfall will return with greater intensity and will be able to recover the flow of the Madeira, Xingu and Tapajós rivers, which serve large plants such as Jirau, Santo Antônio and Belo Monte.
With above-average rainfall forecast for the period, energy prices should fluctuate little and remain at minimum and low levels in 2025, benefiting consumers.
According to the ONS (National System Operator) update on November 18, 2024, the Southeast/Central-West Subsystem reached 42,9% of stored energy, the South Subsystem, 64,3%, the Northeast Subsystem, 44,4%, and the North Subsystem, 56,4%.
On the other hand, despite the forecast of heavy rains, the forecast for summer in the Southeast is for fewer occurrences of strong storms, which usually impact energy distribution.
Storms are expected to occur, but less frequently than last summer. “The tendency is for rain in general to come more frequently and be better distributed throughout the days. In other words, we should have fewer occurrences of storms with strong winds and lightning, the type that usually affects the lines more,” explains Ana Clara.
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