Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the first LRCAP (Long-Term Reserved Capacity Auction) of 2026 could reach up to 40 million tons of CO₂ per year.
This volume is close to the total emissions of the state of Santa Catarina in 2024, according to a study by IEMA (Institute of Energy and Environment), based on data from SEEG (System for Estimating Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases).
According to the mapping, the contracting of thermoelectric power plants tends to increase greenhouse gas emissions in the SIN (National Interconnected System), in addition to prolonging the operation of existing plants.
Held in two stages, the auction contracted approximately 19,5 GW of power, with about 16,8 GW coming from fossil fuel thermal power plants.
Analysis of the graph indicates that the climate impact will not be uniform over time. According to IEMA, an accelerated growth trajectory is predicted between 2026 and the beginning of the next decade, peaking between 2031 and 2036, a period in which the greatest overlap of contracts occurs.
In a high-utilization scenario, emissions approach 40 million tons of CO₂ annually, while in a medium-utilization scenario, they remain in the range of 15 to 20 million tons. In a low-utilization scenario, the impact is significantly lower, but still relevant from a systemic point of view (approximately 1 million tons).
Only the new plants, which represent 56% of the contracted capacity among fossil fuel plants and will operate for a longer period, are expected to emit about 50% more than existing plants in the most conservative scenario (low utilization).
Map
According to the study, a map showing the distribution of power plants reveals a clear pattern: the expansion of thermoelectric power plants follows the country's existing natural gas infrastructure, which is heavily concentrated along the Northeast coast, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and in specific areas of the North, such as Amazonas and Pará.
The institute indicates that this pattern leads to the concentration of socio-environmental impacts in these territories, potentially leading to conflicts in areas already subject to water stress and problems related to air quality.
Municipalities such as Caucaia (CE), Barra dos Coqueiros (SE), Macaé (RJ), and Ipojuca (PE) are already experiencing an overlap of existing and new power plants, with a significant increase in installed capacity. In Caucaia and Barra dos Coqueiros alone, approximately 4 GW have been added.
Check out the full study by clicking here.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
