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In April this year, world leaders participated in a summit meeting and announced their emission targets for 2030.
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In order to analyze such proposals, BNEF (BloombergNEF) published the report How COP26 Climate Pledges Compare in Run-up to Earth Day and highlighted four methods used to compare the commitments assumed by the G-20 economies, which have different bases and deadlines.
Reduction of emission volumes
According to the study, the United Kingdom, EU (European Union) and Brazil have the most ambitious targets for 2030, based on reducing emissions volumes. Their objective is to limit global warming to 1.5 °C – one of the purposes of the Paris Agreement.
“Developing countries – such as Turkey, India and China – can fulfill their plans for ten years from now even by increasing their emissions substantially”, indicated the research.
Emissions per unit of GDP
Another point analyzed by BNEF is that emerging economies often develop their targets considering emissions per unit of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) – which can promote decarbonization without impeding economic growth.
“From this perspective, the United Kingdom and the EU still appear in the top two positions. China and India advance in the rankings, but their plans are not aggressive enough to ensure that the increase in global temperature does not exceed 2°C,” the report said.
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Emissions per capita
According to BloombergNEF, governments tend to set objectives based on per capita emissions if significant population growth is expected. Considering such a metric, the commitments of 15 G-20 countries would result in lower emissions. “However, only the UK total is below our estimate of the level needed for the 1.5°C plan.”
Aggregated scores by country
Finally, BNEF created a method based on aggregated country scores. The research explains that, depending on the level of ambition, each goal receives a score between zero and five for each metric. “Based on this, the 27 EU countries and the UK top the list.”
