EN 
PT_BR 
Currently, the free energy market already accounts for 39% of electricity consumption in Brazil, which could reach 46% with the opening of the high voltage energy market from 2024.
And a new study by Abraceel (Brazilian Association of Energy Traders) shows that, of the total 129.5 GW of centralized electrical energy already granted, expected to operate between 2023 and 2029, 92% are being allocated to the free market. The survey is based on official data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency).
According to Abraceel, this portion of new investments via the free market represents more than R$ 384 billion of investments between 2023 and 2029, out of a total of R$ 424 billion planned for the entire energy generation segment in the period.
This free market leadership in the expansion of the Brazilian electricity generation matrix has been expanded annually.
A study carried out by Abraceel in 2019 showed that the free contracting environment accounted, in that year, for 34% of the entire expansion of the generating complex scheduled to be delivered in five years.
New cuts carried out in 2021 and 2022 detected that this portion grew to 72% and 83%, respectively. Now, it is at 92%.
Furthermore, exclusive data from BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) demonstrates the leading role played by sales companies in this expansion.
Of the total wind and solar projects financed by BNDES between 2018 and 2022, 52% were supported by traders, consolidating the importance of these agents, created 25 years ago, in a new logic that the Brazilian electricity sector is experiencing, with expansion occurring independently of auctions regulated.
The Abraceel study found that, even considering only plants with works in progress and a current installation license, which totals 18.5 GW in the ANEEL database, the free energy market remains the majority environment for new investments, as it concentrates 77% of centralized generation in expansion until 2029.
Renewable expansion
Solar and wind energy sources remain preferred in new projects to expand Brazilian electrical generation capacity.
Of the total 129.5 GW of centralized generation expected to come into operation by 2029, 93% comes from solar and wind plants – an increase of 11 percentage points compared to the previous year.
The free market remains an environment that encourages renewable sources as it is the destination for the majority of projects granted. More than 97% of the centralized photovoltaic generation planned in the period will be destined for the free market. In the case of expansion via wind farms, 91%.
The free market has also been the destination for 52% of the supply of biomass electrical generation and 45% of small hydroelectric plants (PCH, up to 30 MW) and hydroelectric generating plants (CGH, up to 5 MW) with the prospect of coming into operation by 2029.
Methodology
Abraceel's study considered databases and official information from institutions such as ANEEL, EPE, CCEE and BNDES. Only centralized plants were considered, whose supply is registered by Aneel as green and yellow, in the horizon between 2023 and 2029.
The study does not consider the expansion of decentralized generation and excludes centralized plants with no plans to come into operation or with work on hold.
Estimates of investments by source, by year and by contracting environment were made based on data from the Ten-Year Electric Energy Plan 2031.
The calculation of the portion of energy destined for the free market from plants that are also contracted in the ACR (Regulated Commercialization Environment) was determined based on the consolidated results of electricity auctions published by the CCEE (Electrical Energy Commercialization Chamber).
