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PT_BR 
In 2020, the solar energy sector was impacted for a few reasons: the rise of the dollar, which made the value of the investment increase substantially; the drop in supply, due to the explosions at GCL-Poly factory and the fire in two boilers at Daqo, both located in Xinjiang, China; and the serious floods in southeast China, which forced the closure of a Tongwei facility, impacting the supply of polysilicon.
Furthermore, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the market also faced some difficulties. Among them, the drop in the pace of manufacturing and the low availability of maritime transport were some of the factors that companies needed to overcome in order to deliver their equipment.
However, the segment has proven resilient and distributors, integrators and installers, e.g. thanks to advance planning, guaranteed the flow of material delivery.
The sector moved, and with a lot of work, installed capacity continued to grow in Brazil. Data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) showed that between January and October this year the country reached around 1,800 MW of power in photovoltaic DG (distributed generation), an increase of 60% in relation to the 1,100 MW recorded in the same period of the year past.
Furthermore, this month, GD achieved, adding up all the numbers in the country, the 4 GW of power. According to ANEEL, there are more than 411 thousand UCs (Consumer Units) receiving credits, more than 330 thousand photovoltaic plants installed in more than 5 thousand Brazilian cities.
Therefore, robustness and resilience are characteristics that mark this segment, being a progressive source of jobs and demonstrating a rapid economic recovery in the face of the pandemic.
And for 2021, what are the prospects? Canal Solar spoke to some of the sector's prominent professionals who pointed out that “the future will be increasingly solar”.
“The year 2021 is promising in the solar photovoltaic sector. With the technology even more widespread, the payback more than proven and prices becoming more accessible, even with the rise in the dollar, the forecast is for an explosion in demand for next year”, said Lucas Freitas, CEO of Genyx.
“Contributing to this scenario is a forecast of low interest rates, an increase in credit lines for financing and little probability of changing the standard in the short term, despite there being a lot of disagreement about the deadline by several parties involved in the negotiations. The market is increasingly attracting qualified labor and opening up space for the training of new professionals. We see the sector next year as one of the driving forces of post-coronavirus economic recovery”, added Freitas.
Ronaldo Koloszuk, president of the Board of Directors of ABSOLAR (Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy), also commented that the prospects for next year are for accelerated growth in projects, precisely due to the high economic and environmental attractiveness of photovoltaic energy in distributed generation, contributing thus for the sustainable development of the country in overcoming the crisis imposed by the pandemic.
“In the last seven years, distributed solar generation has had an average growth of 231% per year in Brazil, generating jobs and income and attracting private capital. Investment in photovoltaic technology enabled a reduction of more than R$ 4.7 billion in consumers' pockets, resources that have been reinjected into the local economy since 2012. This happens through the release of income – money saved on the electricity bill of those who have a solar system and used by this consumer when purchasing other products, in their region”, pointed out Koloszuk.
Exponential growth and new technologies
According to Aldo Teixeira, president of Aldo Solar, even due to the coronavirus, Brazil had a historic year in terms of growth in solar adoption. “It took us seven years to reach 2 GW of power in distributed generation, from 2012 to 2019, and now we have doubled that amount, reaching the 4 GW milestone. This number demonstrates that the country has been embracing photovoltaic energy and that we are on the right path to grow exponentially in 2021.”
Teixeira also highlighted that, for next year, the expectation is that the numbers will increase and reach another 4 GW in installed power, doubling the volume registered until this year. “We also envision the adoption of technologies that will bring even more innovation to the market and foster the growth that the sector so desires,” he emphasized.
With regard to technologies for photovoltaic panels, the executive reported that new models will reach the national market, bringing benefits to the entire chain. “This is the case of modules such as Vertex S, from Trina, and Tiger Pro, from Jinko, which bring high energy generation. These panels will reach the market at a cost close to previous generation models, but will be more efficient, with greater power and a significantly reduced size.”
“Smaller panels, made for distributed generation, should also reduce international and domestic shipping costs, as they will fit much more watt-peak in the same container or on the same pallet. As an example, to generate 1 MW, using the polycrystalline modules available on the market today, almost 3 thousand panels and 4 and a half containers would be needed. With the new models, to reach 1 MW, only 2,270 panels and 2.7 containers would be needed, also reducing costs with structure, cabling and connectors”, concluded Aldo.
The beginning of 2021 will be challenging, but the sector continues to grow
For Leandro Martins, president of Ecori, the beginning of 2021 will be challenging for the sector because we will still be facing the problem of the pandemic worldwide. “There will be reduced supply demand, which means that suppliers will have difficulty shipping on the agreed dates and quantity. We will see a lot of this in the first quarter.”
“The expectation is that from the second quarter onwards we will begin to see a normalization in relation to the problems that we still saw in the previous quarter. Perhaps we will even see an adjustment in the prices of photovoltaic equipment”, added the executive.
“There will be a huge rush to meet the reduced demand. So, second, third and fourth quarters we will have a lot of activities. I believe that GD will reach another 5 GW throughout 2021, added to the more than 4 GW accumulated by the end of this year. We may even surpass the total mark of 10 GW in 2021. We at Ecori, for example, expect a growth of 200% in revenue, compared to 2020”, he concluded.
Alberto Cuter, general manager of Jinko Solar in Latin America, also highlighted the expansion of the Brazilian DG market. “The sector has shown growth levels among the highest in the world over the last three years. Thanks to well-prepared companies such as Aldo Solar, PHB, Fortlev, Golden, the prospects for growth are very positive. Don’t be surprised if next year we celebrate doubling the installed capacity”, he emphasized.
Still on the prospects for next year, Derek Wang sales manager at Znshine Solar, commented that, given the scenario of economic crisis resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, defaults in the electricity sector increased and demands for energy fell, but Generation maintenance costs remained unchanged.
“The tendency for this energy cost is to increase more and more, which means that in the future the demand for photovoltaic generation will be very high (this already in 2021), as the IRR (internal rate of return) and the payback will be each increasingly favorable to investors and consumers. This also reflects the expansion of production lines of several manufacturers, including Znshine Solar,” said Wang.
However, the executive believes that two factors will be bottlenecks for the sector in the coming years. “Glass production will continue to be in shortage, probably until Q3 and Q4 of next year. There is no forecast for the normalization of supply. Furthermore, because glass is a production that uses a lot of energy and is an industry that pollutes the environment a lot, the Chinese government is making it very difficult to approve the installation of new factories and lines, not to mention that the assembly of a new line (oven) itself takes a long time”, he explained.
“Furthermore, we do not know when the pandemic will pass and when there will be a highly reliable vaccine. Apart from the shortage of glass, we received information that there may also be a shortage of other raw materials, and all of this will impact the supply of the photovoltaic sector”, he concluded.
Integrators demonstrate confidence
Ricardo Rizzotto, owner of EOS Solar, reported that if the country is experiencing a better situation in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic, the scenario will be very good for the photovoltaic sector, as long as the production chain is able to meet the demand, which is increasingly increasing.
“Companies that are going through the pandemic noticed that, if they had a solar system, they would certainly have fewer fixed costs, because no one stops paying for energy. I'm sure that photovoltaics are not outside the investment idea of new companies. The scenario in the future will be very promising”, he highlighted.
Walber Junior, commercial director at Bellsol, also pointed out that solar is the safest basis for medium and long-term investments and is solid in terms of security and return on investment. “We are talking about payblacks that vary between two and eight years depending on the region of Brazil.”
For him, the photovoltaic source has proven, since 2012, when it had its regulatory framework, to be an excellent investment and has enabled businesspeople and individuals to make other contributions to improve the quality of life and financial health of their companies and families.
“In 2021, according to experts, it is believed that there will be a great demand for solar energy, even with the obstacles that the pandemic has caused in the largest distribution and production centers, with consumers seeking to achieve energy freedom and financial,” he commented.
“Another relevant point is the strong possibility that solar has of working together with urban mobility, involving electric cars – another market that has been growing exponentially in Brazil. Can you imagine generating your own energy for your home use or for your company and using the same energy to power your personal car or your legal entity's fleet of vehicles? It is a reality that is already there at the door. The year 2021 awaits us with the boom in solar technology combined with sustainable urban mobility”, added Junior.
REN 482
As reported by Canal Solar, ANEEL has 90 days to present an action plan to resolve the SCEE (electricity compensation system) contained in REN 482 (Normative Resolution No. 482/2012) of the agency. The deadline established by the TCU (Federal Audit Court) began to run from the date of publication, on November 18th.
Analyzing this scenario and outlining the prospects for the future of the sector, Bernardo Marangon, specialist in electricity markets and director of Exata Energia, said that distributed generation has gained yet another chapter of insecurity, now on the initiative of the TCU, which should accelerate changes to REN 482.
“We will have a few months of cloudiness until ANEEL presents the requested plan. In my opinion, I believe that the best way to solve this problem is the evolution of the energy code in Congress”, pointed out Marangon.
“In the future, we will have many similar cases, as technology challenges the status quo and regulatory agencies and legislation are unable to keep up with the speed of this movement”, he concluded.
With collaboration by Ericka Araujo
