EN 
PT_BR 
In the next four years, it is estimated that Brazil will have 45 GW of installed solar energy capacity. This is the analysis of Tarcísio Dario, Director of Operations at Horus, a distributor of photovoltaic equipment.
During webinar promoted by Solar Channel, the executive also highlighted that almost four million systems will be connected to the network in the country, “in a balanced, moderate scenario of development of the sector”.
“Solar would represent, according to our projection, on average, 18% of the energy consumed in Brazil, which would place us among the ten or eight largest in the world in this segment”, he commented.
“However, for a country with the size and potential of Brazil, it is a low number. These projections are based on interest rates, Selic and investments. We have some impediments, some impact factors that inhibit our development”, he pointed out.
Impact factors
Regarding the factors that influence the growth of the photovoltaic sector in Brazil, in Dario's view, is the exchange rate variation. “In fact, next year is an election year. During this period, the market is a little 'stressed'.”
“We have a very large political polarization. The segment is left with uncertainty and, consequently, there is an upward trend in the exchange rate. Did the dollar rise? The energy, the solar panel, the cost of the inverter and cables go up,” he said.
“As a result, there may be a shortage of products next year. A rise in the exchange rate can mean an increase in the cost of equipment. Market volatility is complicated. The price changes from one day to the next, and it’s never downwards, it’s always upwards”, he reported.
According to the expert, the economy is dollarized and, therefore, it is necessary to worry about the investment power of industries in a scenario with a high Selic, “Credit lines are essential to enable Brazil to get out of these constraints on the energy issue”.
Expectations for 2022
Throughout the webinar, the expert also discussed market expectations for 2022. “Next year, global production capacity in modules should reach 200 GW, according to data from the Chinese government”. China has already purchased 100 GW. So, we will fight for the other half with the Americans and Europeans”, concluded the Horus operations director.
