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A solar energy already it is no longer one technology power renewable in expansion, It is Yes, one 'kick' to the energy transition at the world, according to the report carried out by Wood Mackenzie.
In 2023, solar energy will reach 1.5 TW installed worldwide and another 3 TW of capacity is planned for the next ten years.
This year, the market will need to pay attention to several important trends in the sector, such as the slowdown in growth in several important markets and the challenges for the solar industry.
By 2024, solar energy will evolve from a rapidly developing sector to an established industry, marking a transition to more moderate growth.
According to the analysis, if the world's total solar capacity multiplies over the next ten years, growth will begin to slow in 2024.
The average annual growth from 2019 to 2023 was 28%, including a growth of 56% in 2023. With this analysis, the institute states that from 2024 to 2028 the average annual growth will be stable, including some years with reductions.
“The global solar market is following a typical S curve. In recent years, growth has risen rapidly to the steepest levels of the curve”, stated Wood Mackenzie.
“The global solar market is still larger than it was a few years ago, but it is natural for an industry's growth to slow as it matures,” he added.
Annual installation of solar photovoltaic energy by region
Graphic: Wood Mackenzie/reproduction
China leads the way in solar photovoltaic installations. Annual installations have multiplied almost six times since 2019, and with a large market (with almost 200 GW predicted by the institution by 2023) it has a major impact on global growth.
In second place is Europe, which saw an increase in solar growth following the recent energy crisis. According to the report, the last two years have been strong, with annual installation growth of 38% in 2022 and 26% in 2023.
The regions of Africa and the Middle East remained in the same place along the S curve. Wood Mackenzie states that there is still a long way to go before the regions reach their growth deviation points.
“Distributed solar growth will slow as subsidies were recently cut and changes to distributed solar compensation schemes have reduced the viability of projects,” he said.
“China will remain a huge market, but these factors signal a much slower growth trajectory for the solar market,” he added.
Estimated solar manufacturing in 2024
As global solar installations have multiplied, so has solar production capacity.
Several nations have significantly expanded solar energy manufacturing, focusing especially on module production, in order to promote supply chain diversification, overcome trade barriers and stimulate domestic economic investment.
According to the report, module manufacturing capacity has tripled in the last two years to more than 1 TW.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that global module manufacturing rates have fallen dramatically over the past 2 years, from 70% in 2021 to less than 40% in 2023.
“As global demand growth slows, manufacturers will need to be as innovative as ever to remain a constant concern,” the report said.
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