EN 
PT_BR 
The increase in electrical demand will increase the need for the Federal Government to carry out emergency energy contracting, imports and flexibility in the operation of hydroelectric plants in the second half of this year. This is what a technical note, released this Thursday (22), by the ONS (National System Operator) pointed out.
The document was prepared after a request made by the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy). The update considered two different scenarios (one conservative and the other not) and identified that, in both cases, there is a risk of an electrical power deficit between the months of October and November.
The study highlights, however, that, even so, There is no risk of shortages in the country, even in the face of the worst hydrological sequences in the entire flow history of the last 91 years.
Despite this, the point that draws the most attention is the fact that, in the worst possible scenario, Brazil may have to import 2 GW of energy to supply energy in November.
Furthermore, even in the scenario where surpluses occur, the situation “is not very comfortable due to the various existing uncertainties, such as the level of thermal unavailability and more restrictive transmission limits”, informs the ONS.
Scenarios analyzed
In the first simulation, the predicted activation of the thermoelectric park was more conservative and did not consider the operation of all unavailable units. In this hypothesis, the research also considered points such as the relaxation of transmission limits and new requests for flexibility for hydroelectric plant basins, in addition to maximizing thermal dispatch outside the order of merit.
The second scenario, in turn, was analyzed with a greater participation of thermal plants, considering the need to import energy from neighboring countries and thermal dispatch outside the order of merit. That part of the study also took into account possible changes to the flexibility already in force and also considered possible changes to the transmission limits defined according to network procedures.
Reservoirs
Regarding Brazilian reservoirs, projections carried out by the ONS estimate that it is very likely that some hydroelectric plants will arrive in November with water levels below historic lows. In the Southeast/Mid-West subsystem, which accounts for more than 70% of Brazilian energy consumption, the rates may vary, for example, from 10% to 12.6%.
