ONS forecasts national energy load growing by 3.8% in March

Inflows remain below the historical average and hydroelectric reservoirs are empty

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The demand for electrical energy continues to accelerate in Brazil. According to the ONS (National Electric System Operator), the national energy load should reach 82,838 MWmed (average megawatts), which represents an increase of 3.8% compared to last year.

Growth forecasts for the submarkets are: North, 8.1% (7,456 MWmed); Northeast, 7.1% (13,289 MWmed); and the Southeast/Central-West, 3.6% (47,126 MWmed). The southern region may experience a reduction in demand by 0.2% (14,567 MWmed).

Influence estimates remain below the historical average for the month of March. The Southeast/Central-West subsystem, which concentrates 70% of hydroelectric plants with storage capacity, should end the month with ENA (Affluent Natural Energy) of 69%, that is, almost 31% below expectations.

As we can see in the graph below, Stored Energy (EAR) in SE/CO has been falling since June 2023.

Histórico-Energia-Armazenada — History of Stored Energy: period from April 2023 to February 2024.

According to the ONS, the models indicate that in SE/CO the Stored energy level could reach 60% by end of March.

O emptying of reservoirs is worrying the ONS. For some months now, the agency has been signaling the need to activate thermoelectric plants to complement load handling, precisely to save water in the reservoirs to face the dry period that begins in April.

“The projections for ENA (Affluent Natural Energy) remain lower than the historical average for the typically humid period currently underway, which has been warned by the ONS as a point of attention.

The Southeast/Central-West subsystem, which concentrates 70% of the reservoirs of greatest interest in the SIN (National Interconnected System), should end March with an ENA of 69% of the Long Term Average (MLT), which would be the seventh worst ENA for the month in the 94-year historical series”, warned the ONS in a press release.

For the other regions, the indications for ENA are: 110% from MLT in the North region; 76% from MLT, in the South; and 64% from MLT for the Northeast.

In the other submarkets, the EAR level should reach the following at the end of March: North, 95.8%; Northeast, 73.3%; and South, 48%.

For the first time in 14 months, the CMO (Marginal Cost of Operation) is different from zero (R$ 0.06) in the four subsystems.

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Wagner Freire

Wagner Freire is a journalist graduated from FMU. He worked as a reporter for Jornal da Energia, Canal Energia and Agência Estado. He has covered the electricity sector since 2011. He has experience in covering events, such as energy auctions, conventions, lectures, fairs, congresses and seminars.