EN 
PT_BR 
Lithium-ion battery prices have seen a significant drop in recent years. This is what one pointed out search carried out by BNEF (BloombergNEF).
According to the company, the values, which were above US$ 1,100 per kWh in 2010, fell to US$ 137 / kWh in 2020, i.e. a drop of 89%.
The reductions this year, according to BNEF, are due to the increase in orders, the growth in sales of EVs (electric vehicles) and the introduction of new packaging designs.
Adalberto Maluf, president of the Board of ABVE (Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association), commented on the data presented in the report and said that the drop in the price of lithium batteries for EVs helped to make even more business niches viable that go beyond urban buses , also reaching, for example, green logistics vans, garbage compactor trucks, public fleets and applications.
“Sales of electrified vehicles (hybrid and electric) should grow over 60%, reaching almost 20 thousand in the year. With the growth of solar DG (distributed generation) and its complementarity with electric car projects, we will increasingly see large zero-emission projects in Brazil, improving the environment and helping us transition to the industry and jobs of the future”, he highlighted. Maluf.
Future
The BloomberNEF study, which considers electric passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, e-buses and stationary storage, further predicts that in 2023 average package prices will be US$ 101/kWh.
“It is around this cost point that automakers should be able to produce and sell EVs to the market at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles in some markets. This assumes there are no subsidies available, but actual pricing strategies vary by automaker and region,” said James Frith, head of energy storage research at BNEF and lead author of the report.
The expert further pointed out that this is the first time battery pack prices of less than US$ 100/kWh have been reported.
“It is a historic milestone to see lower packaging costs. What’s more, our analysis shows that even if raw material prices returned to their 2018 peaks, this would only delay average values reaching US$ 100/kWh by two years – rather than completely derailing the industry.”
He also highlighted that the sector is becoming increasingly resilient to changes in raw material prices, with major battery manufacturers moving up the value chain and investing in cathode production.
According to research, leading battery manufacturers now enjoy gross margins of up to 20% and their factories are operating at utilization rates above 85%.
“Maintaining high rates is key to reducing cell and pack prices. If they are low, the depreciation costs of the equipment and the building will be spread over fewer kilowatt-hours of cells manufactured.”
Daixin Li, senior energy storage associate at BNEF, added that the increasingly diverse chemicals used in the market result in a wide range of prices.
“Manufacturers are racing to mass-produce high-energy-density batteries with some new chemistries, such as lithium-nickel manganese-cobalt oxide and lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-aluminum oxide, set to be mass-produced soon.” in 2021. Lithium iron phosphate, however, acts as a cost-competitive alternative, contributing to the reported lower cell prices of US$ 80/kWh,” Li explained.
Measurements
For BNEF, one possible path to achieving the lowest prices and reaching US$ 58/kWh by 2030, for example, is the adoption of solid-state batteries. They hope these cells can be manufactured at 40% the cost of current lithium-ion batteries when produced at scale.
“These reductions would come from savings in the bill of materials and production costs, equipment and adoption of new high energy density cathodes. To realize these reduced prices, the supply chain for essential materials such as solid electrolytes, not used in lithium-ion batteries today, needs to be established,” the experts said.
