EN 
PT_BR 
The ONS (National Electric System Operator), CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber) and EPE (Energy Research Company) released load forecast data for the Annual Energy Operation Planning – 2021 Cycle (2021-2025 ).
According to the companies, the expectation is for an average load growth of 3.6% per year. In 2021, the forecast increase is 3.4% in the SIN, considering an increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 3.3%, influenced by the statistical load from 2020.
The prospect is that the load will close the year with 66,793 average MW, an increase of 1,019 average MW in relation to the forecast from the 2nd quarterly review of 2020.
According to the report, the main assumptions considered for the short term were:
- More recent activity indicators corroborate the premise of pandemic impacts being more concentrated in the 2nd quarter, with recovery starting in mid-2020;
- Measures to combat the crisis due to the pandemic, increased confidence and good performance of exports that helped reduce the negative effects of the pandemic on economic activity;
- Gradual recovery of the job market throughout 2021.
The biggest relevant uncertainties considered for this period in the load forecasting process were:
- The impact of the end of emergency aid, the availability of a vaccine for the entire population and the risk of a second wave
From 2022 onwards, the following assumptions were considered:
- More stable economic environment that allows for an increase in agent confidence, recovery of the job market and expansion of domestic demand;
- Acceleration of global growth with greater impetus for export sectors, especially commodities;
- Greater economic stability providing a more significant resumption of investments in the coming years, with emphasis on the infrastructure sector, generating effects on the economy's productivity.
