With the collaboration of Henrique Hein
The possibility of a new El Niño event forming in 2026 has been closely monitored by the Brazilian electricity sector due to its potential impacts on energy consumption, hydroelectric generation, and the operational security of the system.
A survey by Nottus, a company specializing in climate intelligence and meteorological consulting for the corporate market, indicates that the phenomenon may increase the risk of extreme events in the coming months, especially in a scenario of higher global temperatures.
According to the analysis, after the weakening of La Niña conditions in early 2026, meteorological models already point to a rapid transition to climate neutrality, with the possibility of evolving into El Niño between May and July.
For the electricity sector, the main expected impact is related to the increase in temperatures in the Central-West and Southeast regions of the country.
More frequent and prolonged heat waves tend to significantly increase electricity consumption, driven mainly by the intensive use of cooling equipment.
This scenario could put pressure on the operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System) during periods of high load, requiring greater coordination between generation, transmission, and thermoelectric dispatch.
In recent El Niño-related weather events, Brazil has recorded successive records in power demand, especially during extreme heat episodes.
In addition to putting pressure on consumption, the phenomenon can also have significant impacts on hydroelectric power generation. Reduced rainfall in parts of the North and Northeast regions could compromise important inflows and reservoirs for the system, decreasing the availability of hydroelectric power precisely at times of highest demand.
The combination of high temperatures and reduced hydrological predictability increases the challenges for energy planning and reinforces the need for continuous climate monitoring by stakeholders in the sector.
According to Alexandre Nascimento, managing partner and meteorologist at Nottus, the effects of El Niño need to be analyzed within the context of climate change and the increased frequency of extreme weather events.
"The main point is not just the intensity of El Niño, but the fact that climate events amplify impacts on infrastructure, consumption, and energy operations," he states.
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In this context, market professionals believe that the increase in extreme weather events and the growing pressure on the electrical system tend to accelerate the search for solutions capable of increasing energy predictability and reducing exposure to tariff fluctuations, especially in a scenario where electricity bills are accumulating adjustments above inflation.
This trend is already being felt in the distributed generation and storage market, particularly among corporate consumers who are more sensitive to operational costs, peak demand, and the risk of power supply interruptions.
According to Jacques Hulshof, CEO of TTS Energia, this scenario is changing the way companies view electricity consumption, especially in the industrial, logistics, commercial, and agribusiness sectors.
“Each new adjustment in electricity bills directly impacts the competitiveness of companies, increases operational costs, and reduces financial predictability. Therefore, we have observed consistent growth in the search for solar energy solutions associated with battery storage systems, capable of reducing exposure to tariff fluctuations and giving corporate consumers greater energy autonomy,” he states.
According to the executive, hybrid photovoltaic and battery generation projects are gaining even more relevance given the rising cost of energy during peak hours and the need for greater operational stability.
“Batteries are no longer just a complementary technology; they are taking on a strategic role for companies that want to better manage their consumption, reduce peak demand, avoid high costs, and ensure operational continuity during critical moments in the electrical system,” adds Hulshof.
Between January and April 2026 alone, approximately 50% of all orders and quotes received by TTS Energia involved projects with batteries combined with solar panels, while about 25% correspond to systems exclusively for energy storage.
Comparing the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, the company recorded growth of approximately 300% in inquiries for projects of this type.
According to the company's CEO, energy storage should gain prominence in Brazil in the coming years, following a global trend of modernizing electrical infrastructure and decentralizing energy generation.
“Corporate consumers are increasingly focused not only on saving money on their electricity bills, but also on the energy resilience of their business. In a scenario of volatile tariffs and increased inflationary pressure, investing in solar energy with batteries becomes a strategic decision, not just an environmental one,” concludes Hulshof.
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