Brazil could see a significant increase in energy demand in 2026, with a projected average of 85.067 MW, representing a 4,6% growth compared to the 81.302 MW average projected for 2025.
The forecast was presented at the PLAN (Annual Energy Operation Plan) 2026-2030 Workshop, held by EPE (Energy Research Company), in conjunction with ONS (National System Operator) and CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber).
The forecast reinforces expectations of a more demanding year for the operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System), especially due to the combined impact of economic factors and more severe weather conditions.
El Niño
The projected increase in load for 2026 is mainly associated with the expectation of a warmer climate scenario in Brazil.
There are signs of a transition towards a possible El Niño event, a phenomenon characterized by the anomalous warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which tends to raise the average global temperature.
This type of prolonged heating has a direct effect on electricity consumption, by intensifying the use of air conditioning and refrigeration equipment.
Growth is especially noticeable in the residential, commercial, and service sectors, which react immediately to heat waves and periods of above-average historical temperatures.
The trend indicates that the country may face, as early as the first half of 2026, conditions consistent with a moderate El Niño, suggesting temperatures above historical averages, putting pressure on electricity demand.
Economy sustains progress
In addition to climate, the projection of higher loads in 2026 is also supported by economic fundamentals. Even with the forecast of growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) The 2026 forecast has been revised from 2,2% to 2,1%, due to the maintenance of restrictive monetary policies; however, the scenario still considers stimulus in the medium term.
Factors such as tax reform and infrastructure investments can support the gradual increase in energy consumption, contributing to an environment of greater economic activity and a greater need for electricity to meet the demands of productive sectors and service chains.
North and Northeast
In terms of regional breakdown, load growth will not be uniform. The PLAN indicates that the Northern subsystem should register the highest proportional increase, with a growth of 6,9% in 2026. Among the factors cited are the interconnection of Roraima to the SIN (National Interconnected System) and the return of large free consumers linked to the aluminum sector.
The Northeast also appears as one of the main drivers of expansion, with projected growth of 5,8% in load. For the Southeast/Central-West region, the estimate points to an increase of 4,5%, bringing regional demand to an average of 47.634 MW.
Datacenters
Another relevant factor incorporated into the 2026 projections is the increase in loads associated with digital infrastructure. The scenario already considers an average increase of 321 MW resulting exclusively from the expansion of data centers connected to the Basic Grid, reinforcing the importance of this segment in national electricity planning.
The growth trajectory is expected to remain steady throughout the decade, according to the PLAN. The load on the SIN (National Interconnected System) should maintain an average annual variation of 3,8%, with the possibility of reaching an average of 98.151 MW in 2030, signaling an expansion cycle that will require robust planning and continuous investments in generation and transmission.
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