The cost of electrical grid security is expected to become a significant burden on Brazilians' electricity bills in the coming years. The impact is likely to be more intense for industrial consumers, potentially compromising the competitiveness of the country's economic activity.
This is because, in March, the Federal Government held two LRCAPs (Capacity Reserve Auctions), with the aim of increasing operational flexibility and strengthening the security of the SIN (National Interconnected System).
In total, contracts were signed for 19,5 GW of power plants fueled by coal, fuel oil, diesel, natural gas, biofuels, as well as hydroelectric expansions. These projects are expected to come online between 2026 and 2032, with an estimated annual cost of nearly R$ 48 billion at the beginning of the next decade.
This amount will be passed on to consumers through the ERCAP (Capacity Reserve Charge) – which serves to compensate for the availability of power plants (mainly thermoelectric plants) that are on standby to prevent blackouts.
In this regard, a survey by TR Soluções, a company specializing in tariff intelligence, indicates that ERCAP should grow up to 11 times during the period, going from the current R$ 7/MWh to R$ 78/MWh in 2032.
According to the analysis, energy-intensive industries are expected to bear the brunt of the LRCAPs (Low-Cost Reduction Charges). This is because a large portion of these consumers operate in the Free Energy Market, where the charge is levied monthly, making the effects more immediate – starting as early as May.
In the regulated market, an average increase of approximately 0,4% in rates is expected this year. This percentage is expected to gradually increase as contracts come into operation, potentially reaching an average of 8,4% by 2032.
The effects vary depending on the voltage level:
According to Helder Sousa, Director of Regulation at TR Soluções, contracting in a scenario close to the system's criticality limit increased the risk premium incorporated into the contracts, reflecting the urgency of the measure.
"The analysis shows that the security of the system cannot depend exclusively on contracting thermal power plants. Modernizing price signals and creating more robust demand response mechanisms are imperative, so that consumers have adequate economic incentives to reduce consumption during peak hours," concludes the expert.
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