A PV InfoLink announced this week that the polysilicon manufacturers have been negotiating and signing new orders. However, the market landscape is changing faster and faster as prices fall.
"The Polysilicon stock is unlikely to increase at the end of the year, as its production volume increases and downstream demand decreases in the next month. This will be the first drop in the stock of this raw material in the last two years”, they reported.
The mono-Si wafer prices fluctuated more noticeably this week after LONGi and Zhonghuan lowered official costs on November 24 and 27, respectively.
Since Wednesday (30), mono-Si wafers in conventional formats have seen prices falling compared to previous levels. For 182mm wafers with a thickness of 150μm, the values dropped below RMB 7,0/piece.
“As wafer prices fall rapidly, manufacturers demand cheaper polysilicon and are more likely to gradually reduce ingot segment utilization rates. Coupled with the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, demand during December and January could be affected,” they pointed out.
Cell and module prices
According to the consultancy, the cell prices suddenly fell this week. “This is a result of weaker cell demand as module manufacturers have reduced utilization rates for December. Tier 1 module manufacturers reduce utilization rates by 5 to 10% and medium and small modules by 15 to 20%.”
Regarding modules, business activities have declined sharply since last week. As winter approaches, some projects are slowed down, even stopped in northern China, while the south still sees active installations.
In some regions, end users are stymied by module prices and the expiration of the 2017 land use policy. “Market sentiment appears inconsistent in China.”
“This year, installation schedules are vague. Developers start projects at will, despite the installation deadline. Recent rumors suggest that module prices are expected to fall by the deadline early next year, deepening end-user caution,” they emphasized.
“This week, foreign markets are still in disarray, mainly because of weak demand in the fourth quarter and serious project inertia. The values are mixed, as some regions manage to exhaust their stacking stocks”, highlighted PV InfoLink.
Given this scenario, they indicated that module prices fall slightly to US$0,235-0,265/W in Europe, US$0,24-0,25/W in the Asia-Pacific region and US$0,235-0,25/W in Brazil, for example.
“Next year, the emergence of new players will intensify competition in the module sector worldwide. Some manufacturers offered costs as low as RMB 1,75-1,78/W and US$0,22-0,23/W in the first half of the year. This disorder will persist next year,” they said.
N-type cell and module
As N-type cell sales are acquired primarily for internal capabilities, and only a few are external sales. Prices remain at RMB 1,45-1,65/W for M6 HJT cells and RMB 1,35-1,45/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Os module prices reach RMB 2,1-2,2/W and US$0,27-0,29/W in overseas markets for M6 HJT modules; RMB 2,2-2,4/W for G12 HJT modules; RMB 2,03-2,1/W and US$0,26-0,27/W in foreign markets for M10 and G12 TOPCon modules.
“N-type and P-type modules will see an increasingly smaller price difference over the next year. Meanwhile, PERC modules may have price-cost differences with TOPCon and HJT between $0,01/W and $0,02-0,04/W, respectively,” concluded PV InfoLink.
