With the collaboration of Ericka Araújo
The director of ANEEL Fernando Mosna, from the National Electric Energy Agency, said that Brazil is approaching a scenario in which a large-scale blackout could occur if the ONS (National System Operator) loses the capacity to supervise the operation of the electrical system and the control mechanisms foreseen for critical situations do not function adequately.
The statement was made during the event “Electric Sector Trends in 2027”, promoted this Thursday (25) by the law firm Tauil & Chequer Advogados, associated with Mayer Brown, in Rio de Janeiro (RJ).
"I believe we are getting closer and closer to that point where collapse could happen, because if eventually the Operator (ONS) loses the ability to supervise the (electrical) system and the mechanism approved by..." ANEEL "So that distributors have the conditions to collect the generation from Type 3 plants that are not functioning, we could effectively have a blackout in the country. We are reaching that point," he stated.
According to Mosna, the expansion of distributed generation (DG) plants has transformed the way the Brazilian electrical system operates. Currently, according to data presented by the director, the ANEEL This accounts for approximately 49 GW of installed capacity in this modality.
Considering the entire Brazilian generating park, which totals approximately 252 GW, "distributed generation represents one-fifth of the generation we have in Brazil," he stated.
According to Mosna, this new scenario demands an evolution of the operating mechanisms of the SIN (National Interconnected System), so that the growth of distributed generation continues to occur safely and reliably for the entire electrical system.
As an example, Mosna cited the match between Brazil and Haiti in the World Cup. According to him, after the match ended, energy consumption increased rapidly, requiring the ONS (National System Operator) to add approximately 4,3 GW of load to the system in just 21 minutes.
The director also stated that, during that same event, the ONS (National System Operator) had to work together with distributors to reduce the generation of certain power plants connected to the distribution networks, as a way to preserve the operational security of the system.
When commenting on the Brazilian National Team's upcoming game, scheduled for the afternoon, Mosna expressed concern about the load on the energy supply, since the match will take place during a time of high distributed solar power generation.
“I’m even a little worried about what Monday (29) will be like, because the game will be at 14 pm and it tends to be a sunny day. Being a sunny day, it tends to have distributed generation operating in a perspective where at some point, from the end of the game, there will be a ramp (strong increase in demand for energy in a short period of time) again,” he said.
Curtailment remains without a definitive solution.
During the event, Mosna also reiterated his support for a regulatory solution to renewable energy generation cuts, known as curtailment.
According to him, the problem gained greater relevance for the sector after the blackout of August 15, 2023when power outages began to intensify and primarily affect renewable energy projects.
The director stated that, since then, several initiatives have sought to resolve the issue, such as working groups, legislative changes, and public consultations. However, in his assessment, a definitive solution to the problem has not yet been reached.
Mosna also recalled that the ANEEL The process to regulate the future treatment of curtailment has recently begun. According to him, the proposal will still need to undergo public consultation, analysis of contributions from stakeholders, and further discussions before the approval of a final regulation.
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