Demand for electricity in Brazil is expected to accelerate again in June, according to initial projections from the ONS (National System Operator). The estimate indicates a 1,4% growth in load on the SIN (National Interconnected System) compared to the same period in 2025, reaching an average of 78.179 MWmed.
The highlight is the North and Northeast regions, which are expected to show the largest percentage increases in the country. This data is from... PMO (Monthly Operating Program) for the operating week between May 30 and June 5.
They indicate a relatively balanced consumption pattern for the period of milder temperatures, although with important differences between the subsystems. For the ONS (National System Operator), the scenario remains compatible with operational expectations for this time of year.
According to the agency's director-general, Marcio Rea, the evolution of the load continues to be monitored permanently in conjunction with the hydrological conditions of the system.
North leads
Among the four subsystems of the SIN (National Interconnected System), the North is expected to register the largest relative increase in load in June. The projection indicates growth of 4,4% compared to the same month last year, reaching 8.440 MWmed.
Next comes the Northeast, with an estimated expansion of 3,8% and an average load of 13.253 MWmed. The South is also expected to show growth, albeit at a more moderate pace, with an increase of 1,8% and a demand of 13.832 MWmed.
The only subsystem expected to remain stable is the Southeast/Central-West region, responsible for the largest share of national consumption. For this region, the ONS (National System Operator) projects a slight decrease of 0,1%, with an average load of 42.654 MWmed.
Even with the slight decrease, the Southeast/Central-West region will continue to account for more than half of the country's total energy demand.
Below average rainfall
From a hydrological standpoint, projections indicate inflows below the historical average in all subsystems during June. The best conditions are observed in the Southeast/Central-West region, where the ENA (Natural Inflow Energy), an indicator representing the volume of water reaching the reservoirs, could reach 83% of the MLT (Long-Term Average).
In the North and South regions, inflows are expected to be equivalent to 65% of the historical average. The Northeast, however, has the lowest projection, with an expected inflow of water equivalent to 60% of the long-term average.
Despite the less favorable hydrological scenario, reservoir storage levels remain high, ensuring greater operational margin for the system.
High level
Projections from the ONS (National System Operator) show that the Northern subsystem should end the period with the highest storage rate in the country, reaching 99,7% of EAR (Stored Energy), an indicator that measures the volume of energy available in hydroelectric reservoirs.
The Northeast follows closely behind, with an expected storage level of 90,9%, a figure that remains among the highest in the National Interconnected System (SIN). In the Southeast/Central-West, the country's main load center, the forecast is for 66% storage.
The South is expected to register 64,1%. The numbers indicate a significantly more comfortable situation than that observed during periods of greater water stress faced by the electrical system in previous years.
Cost of operation
PMO projections also show relative uniformity in the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) – an indicator that represents the cost of meeting an increase in energy demand in the system – among three of the four Brazilian subsystems.
The Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast regions are expected to have the same CMO value: R$ 219,78/MWh. The North, in turn, appears with a higher cost, estimated at R$ 289,25/MWh.
According to the operator, continuous monitoring of inflow conditions and demand trends remains a priority to ensure the safe and efficient operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System) over the coming months.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
