Energy demand is expected to accelerate in June, with the Northern region leading the growth.

Demand for electricity in Brazil is expected to accelerate again in June, according to initial projections from the ONS (National System Operator). The estimate indicates a 1,4% growth in load on the SIN (National Interconnected System) compared to the same period in 2025, reaching an average of 78.179 MWmed.

The highlight is the North and Northeast regions, which are expected to show the largest percentage increases in the country. This data is from... PMO (Monthly Operating Program) for the operating week between May 30 and June 5.

They indicate a relatively balanced consumption pattern for the period of milder temperatures, although with important differences between the subsystems. For the ONS (National System Operator), the scenario remains compatible with operational expectations for this time of year.

According to the agency's director-general, Marcio Rea, the evolution of the load continues to be monitored permanently in conjunction with the hydrological conditions of the system.

North leads

Among the four subsystems of the SIN (National Interconnected System), the North is expected to register the largest relative increase in load in June. The projection indicates growth of 4,4% compared to the same month last year, reaching 8.440 MWmed.

Next comes the Northeast, with an estimated expansion of 3,8% and an average load of 13.253 MWmed. The South is also expected to show growth, albeit at a more moderate pace, with an increase of 1,8% and a demand of 13.832 MWmed.

The only subsystem expected to remain stable is the Southeast/Central-West region, responsible for the largest share of national consumption. For this region, the ONS (National System Operator) projects a slight decrease of 0,1%, with an average load of 42.654 MWmed.

Even with the slight decrease, the Southeast/Central-West region will continue to account for more than half of the country's total energy demand.

Below average rainfall

From a hydrological standpoint, projections indicate inflows below the historical average in all subsystems during June. The best conditions are observed in the Southeast/Central-West region, where the ENA (Natural Inflow Energy), an indicator representing the volume of water reaching the reservoirs, could reach 83% of the MLT (Long-Term Average).

In the North and South regions, inflows are expected to be equivalent to 65% of the historical average. The Northeast, however, has the lowest projection, with an expected inflow of water equivalent to 60% of the long-term average.

Despite the less favorable hydrological scenario, reservoir storage levels remain high, ensuring greater operational margin for the system.

High level

Projections from the ONS (National System Operator) show that the Northern subsystem should end the period with the highest storage rate in the country, reaching 99,7% of EAR (Stored Energy), an indicator that measures the volume of energy available in hydroelectric reservoirs.

The Northeast follows closely behind, with an expected storage level of 90,9%, a figure that remains among the highest in the National Interconnected System (SIN). In the Southeast/Central-West, the country's main load center, the forecast is for 66% storage.

The South is expected to register 64,1%. The numbers indicate a significantly more comfortable situation than that observed during periods of greater water stress faced by the electrical system in previous years.

Cost of operation

PMO projections also show relative uniformity in the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) – an indicator that represents the cost of meeting an increase in energy demand in the system – among three of the four Brazilian subsystems.

The Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast regions are expected to have the same CMO value: R$ 219,78/MWh. The North, in turn, appears with a higher cost, estimated at R$ 289,25/MWh.

According to the operator, continuous monitoring of inflow conditions and demand trends remains a priority to ensure the safe and efficient operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System) over the coming months.

Energy prices fall after load forecast falls short of market expectations, says BBCE.

Electricity prices fell after the projected load for June came in below market expectations. The expectation of lower demand in the Southeast/Central-West region, the main consumption center and benchmark for pricing in the electricity sector, pushed prices down on the BBCE (Brazilian Energy Trading Platform) throughout the last week.

The largest drops were observed in contracts with delivery in August, which fell 6,59%, from R$ 261,95/MWh to R$ 244,69/MWh. Following that, the product for the third quarter of 2026 registered a devaluation of 5,07%, going from R$ 258,62/MWh to R$ 245,51/MWh.

The July and June contracts also showed significant declines. The July product fell 4,75%, from R$ 218,00/MWh to R$ 207,64/MWh, while the June contract fell 3,59%, from R$ 216,34/MWh to R$ 208,57/MWh.

Both were among the most traded assets during the period. Contracts for the second half of 2026, however, accumulated a 3,20% drop, with prices falling from R$ 285,72/MWh to R$ 276,59/MWh. In terms of traded volume, June and July contracts led the transactions, moving 291 GWh and 170 GWh, respectively. Following them were products from the second half of 2026, with 163 GWh traded.

According to Eduardo Rossetti, Executive Director of Products, Communication, Marketing and Institutional Relations at BBCE, the projected average load of 42.654 MW for the Southeast/Central-West region reflects the expectation of milder temperatures in the region's capitals.

With demand lower than initially projected by the market, pressure on prices decreased, favoring the downward movement observed in trading on the platform.

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