Abraceel (Brazilian Association of Electric Energy Commercialization) expressed concern about the escalating prices in the Free Energy Market, especially regarding the structural factors that have been sustaining this movement.
According to the organization, there is a "sectoral disarray" that has discouraged new investments in generation, especially given the inconsistencies observed in pricing models.
In the Free Contracting Environment, prices are strongly tied to the PLD (Price of Settlement of Differences), an indicator calculated from mathematical models, but also influenced by operational decisions of the ONS (National System Operator) and guidelines from the CMSE (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee).
Since January 2025, the adoption of the so-called hybrid Newave (a model used in planning the system's operation) has made pricing more conservative and sensitive to risk, putting pressure on the PLD (Price of Energy in the Spot Market).
In practice, this has resulted in greater volatility and higher prices, even in scenarios with comfortable reservoir levels. During times of hydrological uncertainty, models tend to signal scarcity, driving up energy prices.
Data from Abraceel reflects this trend. Between January 2024 and March 2026, long-term contracts registered a 59% increase, rising from R$ 147/MWh to R$ 233/MWh.
In the short term, the escalation was even more intense: quarterly prices rose 121%, from R$ 143/MWh to R$ 317/MWh. Meanwhile, the PLD (Price of Energy in the Spot Market) advanced 84% during the period, going from R$ 129/MWh to R$ 236/MWh.
In addition to changes in models, the organization points to other pressure factors, such as reduced energy supply, curtailment events (cuts in renewable generation), and a change in strategy on the part of generators.
According to the association, some companies have prioritized sales in the short-term market, taking advantage of higher prices, instead of establishing long-term contracts. At the same time, recent cases of trading companies going bankrupt have made generators more selective in their choice of clients.
“About a third of consumer contracts have a term of two to six years, and with this price level, coupled with the supply crisis and the scarcity of new energy, these free consumers will be exposed to potentially unaffordable prices,” says Rodrigo Ferreira, president of Abraceel.
According to him, a careful look is needed, including from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), to “avoid artificialities in price formation, such as the exercise of market power and operational cost overruns,” it emphasizes.
The issue gained even more relevance after a CNN Brazil report indicated that independent trading companies are considering taking legal action against CADE (Brazil's antitrust authority) due to the deteriorating liquidity conditions in the free market.
The warning comes at a crucial moment for the sector. The opening of the market anticipates the entry of millions of new consumers starting in 2027 and 2028. In this context, maintaining high prices could compromise the attractiveness of the free market environment precisely at the time of its expansion.
According to Ferreira, with the free market already accounting for about 42% of national demand and with the prospect of universal access, as foreseen in Law 15.269/2025, the debate on price formation becomes even more relevant.
"It is crucial that the government and society closely monitor the dynamics of energy prices, otherwise both the productive sector and the market opening policy itself risk becoming unviable, with direct impacts on inflation," he concludes.
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