Renata Reges

The first round of the 2026 elections redrew not only the country's political map, but also an important part of Brazil's clean energy map. Key states for solar, wind, and biofuel generation, as well as for the expansion of new renewable energy projects, have already selected their governors. The result deserves the sector's attention. Although much of the energy market regulation is established at the federal level, it is in the states that many investments gain momentum or encounter obstacles. Environmental licensing, taxation, infrastructure, attracting businesses, workforce training, and coordination with municipalities make state governments key players in the energy transition. At a time when the Brazilian challenge is no longer just installing new capacity, but also improving the flow, storage, and consumption of the energy produced, this influence is likely to grow. Minas Gerais: Solar leadership under new command. Minas Gerais is one of the most important cases. A national leader in solar energy, the state will have a new leader starting in 2027. Over the past few years, Minas Gerais has consolidated a broad chain linked to distributed and centralized generation, bringing together investors, suppliers, integrators, and consumers, in addition to a significant portfolio of new projects. For the next government, the challenge will be to preserve the competitiveness of this environment and transform solar leadership into permanent economic development. Legal certainty, tax policies, network infrastructure, and attracting industries capable of consuming clean energy will have a direct impact on the continuity of investments. More than just increasing generation, Minas Gerais will have the opportunity to use its energy advantage as an element of industrial policy and to attract new businesses. Northeast: Abundant energy demands a new agenda. Bahia, Ceará, Piauí, Pernambuco, and Paraíba also emerged from the first round with important political decisions. These are states that occupy a central position in the expansion of renewable energy sources in Brazil. For years, the debate has focused on the region's enormous potential for sun and wind. Now, a new question arises: how can we better utilize all the energy that the Northeast is already capable of producing? The curtailment crisis exposed the limitations of expansion based solely on increasing supply. Without sufficient transmission, storage, new loads, and greater system flexibility, some of the available energy risks not being fully utilized. Therefore, the governors' agenda needs to move beyond the installation of new parks. Data centers, low-emission hydrogen, energy-intensive industries, storage systems, and other new consumers can help bring generation and demand closer together. The next cycle of renewables in the Northeast will depend less on proving that energy resources exist and more on creating the conditions to transform this abundance into economic activity. São Paulo and the importance of demand: São Paulo represents another dimension of this transformation. The country's largest economic and consumer center boasts an extensive base for distributed generation, industrial activity, electromobility, and potential for energy storage and new energy management solutions. While Minas Gerais and the Northeast demonstrate the strength of renewable energy supply, São Paulo highlights the importance of demand. The future of the sector will increasingly depend on the ability to bring producing regions closer to new consumer centers and, at the same time, stimulate loads that can competitively utilize clean energy. In this scenario, state policies on electrification, mobility, innovation, storage, and industrial attraction also become integrated into energy policy. Clean energy as a development policy. This new configuration sends an important message: clean energy is no longer just a sectoral policy. It is increasingly becoming an industrial, technological, environmental, and regional development policy. Having abundant sun, wind, or biomass does not, in itself, guarantee competitiveness. States will need to combine natural resources with infrastructure, grid connectivity, storage, regulatory stability, and consumers capable of absorbing this generation. The first round has already determined who will lead a large portion of the territories most relevant to Brazil's energy transition over the next four years. Now begins a less visible but crucial stage: observing which governments will be able to transform energy potential into investment, jobs, industry, and development. For the solar sector, this information will be especially important. The next phase of growth will not depend solely on installing more megawatts. It will depend on ensuring that the energy produced finds a grid, storage, demand, and an institutional environment capable of supporting new investments. The election has ended in many states. For clean energy, however, the battle for competitiveness is only just beginning.

Renata Reges

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The new political map of clean energy in Brazil.