A ANEEL The Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica) has raised its projection for the average increase in electricity tariffs in Brazil in 2026 from 8,6% to 9,4%. The new estimate remains above the inflation projections considered by the agency for the year, which are 5% for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) and 4,4% for the IGP-M (General Price Index - Market).
This is the second upward revision made by the agency this year. In the first 2026 edition of InfoTarifas, published in March, the estimate was 8%. In June, it rose to 8,6%, and now it has reached 9,4%.
According to ANEELThe most recent revision is related to a combination of factors, including changes in inflation projections, energy costs, and financial components considered in tariff processes.
The 9,4% figure, however, represents an average national tariff effect and does not mean that all consumers will experience this adjustment. The result varies according to each concessionaire and its respective tariff process.
The report shows this difference: 16% of the market is in dealerships with a projected average effect of 17,6%, while 5% is in areas with an average effect of 0,7%.
Financial factors put pressure on projection.
Financial components represent the largest share of the projected tariff effect for 2026, with an aggregate impact of 4,7%.
Among the factors is CVA Energia, a mechanism used to compensate for differences between the energy purchase costs considered in tariffs and the values actually realized.
According to ANEELThe costs associated with CVA Energia and over-contracting behaved more severely than estimated in March. As a result, the combined effect of these components increased from 1,3% to 3,5%, a difference of 2,2 percentage points.
The movement is related to the costs of CCEARs (Energy Trading Contracts in the Regulated Environment) for availability in the face of a more unfavorable hydrological regime during the analyzed period. On the other hand, some components contributed to containing the projected increase.
UBP resources help contain the surge.
Among the main factors contributing to the reduction are the resources derived from the renegotiation of the UBP (Use of Public Assets) obligations of hydroelectric plants.
According to the estimate considered by InfoTarifas, approximately R$ 5,2 billion were incorporated into the calculation, resulting in a 1,9% reduction in the average national tariff effect. These resources were not included in the projection published in March.
In a specific process, the ANEEL It has preliminarily approved the distribution of approximately R$ 5,5 billion to distributors located in the areas of operation of Sudam (Superintendency for the Development of the Amazon) and Sudene (Superintendency for the Development of the Northeast), with the aim of promoting affordable tariffs for consumers in the regulated market.
The agency also approved the ETLEP (Balanced Limit Tariff Effect) at 6,53%. This mechanism is used to promote a more balanced distribution of benefits among the 22 concessionaires included and to reduce differences between concession areas.
At the end of the year, the ANEEL It will consolidate the collected amounts and define the final amounts allocated to each distributor. Any differences in relation to the preliminary amounts will be adjusted in the 2027 tariff processes.
Deferrals reduce impact by 0,8%
Another factor that helped contain the projection was the deferrals granted to three distributors. The calculation considers R$ 812 million from CPFL Paulista, R$ 21 million from Energisa Mato Grosso do Sul, and R$ 1,3 billion from Copel. According to... ANEELThese deferrals reduced the average tariff effect by 0,8% and were not included in the initial estimate.
There was also a change in the return of PIS/Cofins credits. The forecast fell from R$ 6,5 billion to R$ 5,3 billion, decreasing the potential reduction in the average tariff effect from 2,4% to 1,9%.
Capacity contracts increase costs.
The entry into force of contracts signed in the 2026 LRCAPs (Capacity Reserve Auctions) should also increase the ERCAP (Capacity Reserve Charge), used to remunerate resources contracted to guarantee the supply to the electrical system during periods of high demand or lower generation availability.
In June, the total cost amounted to R$ 192 million. With the start of the new contracts, the ANEEL It estimates monthly disbursements of approximately R$ 650 million until December 2026, resulting in an annual cost of approximately R$ 3,7 billion and adding about 0,3% to the average national tariff effect.
The trend is for growth next year. By the end of 2027, the monthly value could exceed R$ 1 billion, with an estimated annual impact of R$ 9,3 billion.
The costs of the charge are shared by consumers in both the regulated and free markets. An exception foreseen in the bulletin is the contracting of battery storage systems, whose payments will be covered exclusively by the generators.
Transmission accounts for 0,9%
Transmission costs account for 0,9% of the projected tariff effect for 2026. According to... ANEELThe movement is related to the increase in costs of the Basic and Border Network and the Annual Permitted Revenues (APRs) of the transmission companies.
For the 2026/2027 cycle, the segment's RAP (Annual Revenue Allowed) reached R$ 55 billion, a 9,43% increase compared to the previous period. This increase stems from the contractual updating of revenues, tariff revisions carried out in 2026, and the incorporation of new facilities into the SIN (National Interconnected System).
Despite the increase in revenue for transmission companies, the ANEEL It estimates an average impact of approximately 1,1% for end consumers.
Residential tariff reaches R$ 998/MWh
InfoTarifas also shows that the B1 residential tariff reached R$ 998/MWh in 2026, before taxes were applied.
In the average composition presented by ANEELEnergy accounts for 40,9% of the value, followed by distribution at 31,1%; sector charges at 20,9%; and transmission at 7,1%. ICMS and PIS/Cofins taxes are also levied on these amounts.
The report also indicates that subsidies recorded between September 2025 and August 2026 totaled R$ 56,26 billion.
In addition to the projection for this year, the ANEEL It highlights that the implementation of the Tax Reform will require a review of the tariff mechanisms used in the electricity sector.
The transition to CBS and IBS may affect regulated revenues, investments, operating costs, charges, and billing procedures.
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