A CCEE (Electricity Trading Chamber) projected that the PLD (Difference Settlement Price) for 2023 will be close to your minimum value.
The estimates released at the last PLD Meeting for the year's average in each of the submarkets can be seen below, considering five possible climatological scenarios.
According to the Chamber, the expectation reflects a scenario of favorable inflows with values close to historical averages, combined with high levels of storage in the country's main reservoirs and a lower expectation of load growth.
“The PLD is a variable that depends on factors that are difficult to control and anticipate (prediction), such as precipitation (rain) and load growth, among others,” said the entity.
The CCEE projection takes into account the latest data available at the time, however the hypotheses used as a basis for the calculations may change at any time, which impacts the final result of the price expectation.
Below are more details about the scenarios considered:
- Scenario 1: Projection of Affluent Natural Energy – ENA through Neural Networks (ENA log), considering the expected value of the December ENA;
- Scenario 2: Projection of Affluent Natural Energy – ENA through Neural Networks (ENA log), considering the upper limit of the January ENA;
- Scenario 3: Projection of Influent Natural Energy – ENA through Neural Networks (ENA log), Lower Limit of the January ENA;
- Scenario 4: Projection of Influent Natural Energy – ENA using the extended Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) model, considering the rainfall observed from January 2018 to February 2019;
- Scenario 5: Projection of Influent Natural Energy – ENA using the extended Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) model, considering the rainfall observed from January 2021 to February 2022.
