Reservoir levels should close April above 80%

O PMO bulletin (Monthly Operations Program), referring to the operative week between April 8th and 14th, pointed out that the three regions should end the month with EAR (Stored Energy) at levels above 80%, a scenario of stability compared to the previous review.

According to ONS (National Electric System Operator), the projection for the Southeast/Central-West is the same as the week before last: 85,7%.

If the result for the Southeast/Central-West is confirmed, will be the highest volume for April since 2011 (87,8%). For the Northeast and North, the expectation is to reach an EAR of 89,6% and 99,9%. The South should register an EAR of 78,1% on April 30.

Em March, Stored Energy reached the best levels in more than a decade. The Southeast/Central-West ended the previous month with an EAR of 83,1%, the highest volume in the last 16 years.

In March 2007, the region's EAR was 87,3%. In the South, the percentage was 82,9%, a rate not recorded since March 2016 (97,6%). For the North and Northeast, the results were 97,7% and 91,2%, respectively.

Prospective load growth scenarios in the SIN (National Interconnected System) and in two subsystems. In SIN, the acceleration is estimated at 2,7% (72.488 MWmed). The regions that should show similar behavior are the North, with 15% (6.754 MWmed), and the South, with 9,5% (12.661 MWmed).

For the Southeast/Central-West, the projection is stability, with demand for 41.709 MWmed, without expansion or reduction. The only submarket with a prospect of retraction is the Northeast, with a deceleration of 1,1% (11.364 MWmed). The estimates are for April 30, compared to the same period last year.

For this operational week, stable weather forecast conditions are expected in all subsystems compared to those seen in the previous week. Temperatures are expected to remain milder.

CMO and MLT

Regarding the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost), the ONS pointed out that it remains zero in all subsystems. The CMO has had a zero value since the end of December 2022 and this is the sixteenth consecutive week that the pattern has repeated.

Influence projections indicate that the North submarkets, with 110% of MLT (Long Term Average), and the Southeast/Central-West, with 90% of MLT, are the regions with the highest prospects. Both present stability compared to what was announced in the previous review.

For the South, the expectation is 71% of the MLT and the estimated scenario for the Northeast is 35% of the MLT. The data refers to the last day of April, the month that marks the end of the typically humid period.