A ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association) released its annual projection for the sector this Wednesday (10). The study predicts that, in 2026, the country should register a drop in investments and expansion of the source compared to 2025.
If confirmed, this will be the second consecutive year of contraction, following the record growth registered in 2024. According to the entity, the installation of new projects, both large power plants and small systems, should fall by 7% next year.
According to projections, solar energy should add 10,6 GW of installed capacity in 2026, compared to the 11,4 GW added in 2025. The estimated value for the end of 2025, in turn, represents a 24% drop compared to the 15 GW added in 2024.
In large solar power plants, the ABSOLAR points out the financial losses resulting from generation cuts (curtailment) as the main hindering factor. In the distributed generation (DG) segment, the association highlights the increase in connection obstacles under justifications of flow reversal.
Adding to this scenario are other macroeconomic and tax factors that, combined, tend to discourage new investments for next year. These include the high cost of credit, with interest rates close to 15% per year; the high volatility of the dollar; and the high import tax rates on photovoltaic equipment.
Less investment, jobs, and revenue.
Within this context, the study projects investments of R$ 31,8 billion in 2026, an amount lower than the approximately R$ 40 billion estimated for 2025. The impact is also seen in job creation: the sector is expected to create 319,9 new jobs in 2026, compared to 396,5 expected for this year.
Tax revenue linked to the solar energy sector is also expected to decline, falling from over R$13 billion in 2025 to approximately R$10,5 billion in 2026. Even with this slowdown, solar energy is expected to continue expanding its presence in the energy mix.
A ABSOLAR It is projected that Brazil will reach 75,9 GW of cumulative installed solar power capacity by the end of 2026. Of this total, 51,8 GW should come from small and medium-sized self-generation systems installed by consumers, and 24,1 GW will be in large solar power plants connected to the SIN (National Interconnected System).
Given the scenario of contraction, the ABSOLAR It announced that by 2026 it will strengthen its operations in Brasília (DF), presenting proposals to candidates for President of the Republic and other links in the political chain. The association's idea is to seek, through dialogue, solutions for generation cuts, connections for distributed generation, and the proper regulation of energy storage in the country.
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