Initial projections for July indicate growth in load on the SIN (National Interconnected System), with more intense growth in the Northeast and North and a decline only in the South. The beginning of the second half of 2026 should be marked by an increase in electricity consumption in the country, according to the first projections from the ONS (National System Operator) for July.
The estimate is for a 1,9% growth in the load of the SIN (National Interconnected System) compared to the same period last year, reaching an average of 77.737 MWmed. The projected growth is mainly driven by the Northeast and North regions, while only the South is expected to experience a decline.
These figures are from the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) for the operating week between June 27 and July 3 and represent the operator's initial estimates for demand behavior throughout the second half of the year.
According to an assessment by the ONS (National System Operator), although winter began last week, the outlook remains one of expanding consumption in most of the country.
Northeast leads growth
Among the subsystems, the Northeast is expected to register the largest percentage increase in demand, with an estimated growth of 7,5% and an average load of 13.382 MWmed. Next is the North region, with a projected expansion of 6,3%, reaching 8.563 MWmed.
The Southeast/Central-West subsystem, responsible for the largest share of national consumption, is expected to show a more moderate increase of 0,5%, reaching an average load of 42.299 MWmed.
The South is the only exception among the four subsystems. For the region, the ONS estimates a 1,1% reduction in load, to 13.493 MWmed, when comparing July of this year to the same month in 2025.
According to the general director of ONS, Marcio Rea, the behavior of demand continues to be influenced by different factors, but the scenario still points to an expansion of consumption in most of the country, even with the beginning of the period of lower temperatures.
The South offers the best conditions.
ONS hydrological projections point to a distinct scenario among Brazilian regions. The Southern subsystem is the only one with projected inflows above the historical average, reaching 151% of the LTA (Long-Term Average). This indicator points to favorable conditions for water storage in the region.
In the Southeast/Central-West subsystem, the expectation is 96% of the historical average, while the Northeast and North regions have lower hydrological projections: 64% and 63%, respectively.
Reservoirs at high levels
Estimates for EAR (Stored Energy) indicate that reservoir levels in the SIN (National Interconnected System) will remain at comfortable levels. The North is expected to end the period with the highest storage level, equivalent to 94,4% of maximum capacity.
Next comes the South, with 87%, the Northeast, with 82,9%, and the Southeast/Central-West, whose projection is 65,8%. The percentages reflect the energy available in the reservoirs and constitute one of the main indicators used by the operator to monitor the conditions of service to the electrical system.
The North maintains the highest cost.
PMO projections also indicate differences between subsystems regarding the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost). The Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast regions are expected to register the same value, of R$ 145,64 per megawatt-hour. The North, however, will remain with a significantly higher cost, estimated at R$ 313,04/MWh.
CMO is one of the parameters used by the electricity sector to represent the cost of meeting demand and serves as a benchmark for various operational and market analyses.
With the first projections for July, the ONS (National System Operator) indicates a scenario of load expansion at the beginning of the second half of the year, mainly supported by the performance of the Northeast and North regions, while hydrological conditions remain more favorable in the South and storage levels remain high in all subsystems of the country.
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