The global photovoltaic industry has been experiencing productive growth year after year. As a result, panel prices are expected to continue falling this year, albeit at a slower pace.
Furthermore, the improvement in module efficiency will drive the downward trend in Capex (plant construction cost), which will reduce the LCOE (levelized cost of energy). This is what consultancy Wood Mackenzie assesses.
In your last Solar PV Module Technology Market Report 2020, the company examined three technologies that have the potential to improve the PV panel's energy class and performance: large wafer, N-type cells, and cell and module-level techniques.
“We found that solar modules made from large wafers, such as the M6, M10 or G12 format, can reduce the Capex of a utility-scale PV project by 3% to 9%. The cost savings would be attractive to solar developers and installers, which will drive market adoption,” said Xiaojing Sun, author of the report.
Wood Mackenzie data further shows that the total manufacturing capacity of M6, M10 and G12 wafer-based modules will reach 28 GW, 63 GW and 59 GW, respectively, by the end of 2021.
By 2025, panel production capacity using M10 and G12 is predicted to exceed 90 GW, making them the dominant technologies by manufacturing capacity.
“Importantly, market adoption of large modules depends on the co-evolution of system balancing components, such as inverters and trackers, to accommodate the higher current and larger size,” Sun explained.
“Several industry alliances have been formed since early 2020 to ensure the entire solar ecosystem evolves to support the adoption of large panels. If the industry's efforts bear fruit, we anticipate that large module shipments in 2021 will represent approximately 40% of total crystalline silicon panel shipments. At the end of 2025, modules made with wafer sizes smaller than M6 will be eliminated from the market”, highlighted the expert.
N-type modules
The report also investigated N-type modules such as HIT and TOPCon, which could generate more power per panel due to higher cell efficiency and lower degradation rates.
According to the Wood Mackenzie analyst, unlike large modules, type N modules currently do not generate system Capex and LCOE savings in utility-scale solar projects. The high product costs of these solar panels offset the non-modular cost savings at the system level.
“Our analysis shows that TOPCon and HIT modules will need a premium power class of at least 40 W and 90 W, respectively, or a price cut of 6% and 20% to be competitive with mono PERC. Admittedly, these are difficult orders. However, significantly improving efficiency and reducing production cost are the mandatory paths for N-type modules to succeed in mono PERC as the next-generation solar panel of choice,” Sun highlighted.
The research concluded that in the coming years the world will experience rapid innovations in the solar module market, leading to significant increases in the power class of the panels, better performance and more versatile applications.
“Such innovations, in addition to contributing to hardware cost reduction, will be the driving force par excellence that drives the continued reduction of solar LCOE in the new decade,” concluded Sun, author of the report.
