O La niña, which has the characteristic of prolonging the dry periods of the year, should delay the resumption of rain in the wet season and impact the Brazilian electric sector. The analysis is from Weather, a company specialized in weather and forecast.
According to Climatempo projections, the La Niña is expected to start in July, which should gain strength in the spring and reach its peak at the beginning of summer, losing intensity only in the autumn of next year.
The phenomenon will further accentuate the dry periods recorded in winter in North, Central-West and Southeast regions. Additionally, you must bring rainfall well below average and prolong the drought also in the South.
With a winter with above average temperatures, energy consumption should increase significantly in the country. Furthermore, with the low incidence of rainfall in the North, Central-West and Southeast regions, the generation of hydroelectric plants in the South submarket gains even more relevance.
According to Climatempo, these hydroelectric plants are located mainly in the Uruguay River, in the North of Rio Grande do Sul, having suffered a lesser impact from floods that affect the state.
Due to this factor, plants in this submarket will have a greater challenge to export energy to other regions, as is usual during this period, in addition to meeting demand in the South region itself.
The consultancy also assesses that the strong period of rain in Rio Grande do Sul may slightly delay the arrival of the dry period, but will not prevent the effects of La Niña, which is expected to cause longer droughts in the country. Thus, Brazil will continue to suffer from the impacts of intense weather phenomena.
“With La Niña forming in July, the tendency is for a longer dry period and a delay in the resumption of the wet period in spring”, he points out. Ana Clara Marques, meteorologist and climate specialist for the electricity sector at Climatempo.
Also according to the meteorologist, the increase in energy consumption in winter, due to higher than normal temperatures, combined with the decrease in rainfall in the South, tends to cause a warning sign in the sector.
“We should notice a secondary impact at the beginning of La Niña, causing more drought in the South from the winter onwards, and other drought effects for the other regions in the transition from winter to spring, which makes the phenomenon even more relevant for the electricity sector”, he adds.
Ana remembers that the return of the rains is essential to maintain the hydroelectric reservoirs at satisfactory levels, especially considering that the Brazil's electrical matrix is 54% hydro.
In view of this, a favorable measure was the reduction of flows at the Jupiá and Porto Primavera hydroelectric plants, located on the Paraná River, in a measure adopted by the CMSE (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee), managed by Ministry of Mines and Energy.
Under the impact of extreme weather events
According to the expert, in addition to the meteorological phenomena, the sector is also impacted by extreme weather events temperature, rain, winds and lightning, which are occurring more frequently and intensely in the last decade, even in periods when their occurrence would not be usual.
As heat waves, like those seen recently in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, increased demand for energy, mainly due to the activation of air conditioners.
Climatempo observed that, from May 2023 to March 2024, the city of São Paulo recorded more heat than usual. “Part can be associated with the El Niño phenomenon, but much of this anomaly is due to climate extremes”, notes Ana Clara.
The biggest anomaly noted since 2007 was in September 2023, when the temperature was 3,44 ºC above the historical average for the month.
The average from 2007 onwards in São Paulo is 82 days per year above 30°C and, in 2023, there were 107 days, and 9 days above 35°C. Despite being high, they did not exceed the record temperatures of 2014.
“Due to all the variations and the occurrence of extremes, the players of the sector – whether generators, transmitters, distributors, traders and regulators – are increasingly worried to look for the weather information to prepare and adapt to this new scenario of climate change”, observes the expert.
Today, Climatempo operates by providing solutions, including weather reports periodicals to provide companies in the sector with information, in addition to having the SMAC platform (Climatempo Monitoring and Alert System), which stores meteorological data in a single system, showing the climatic conditions in the companies' areas of operation.
The company also uses AI (artificial intelligence) protocols for nowcasting with more assertive predictions for the next 60 minutes, performed every 10 minutes.
“We can say that the energy sector is ahead in the search for climate information, due to the impacts on operations and also because it is under a lot of pressure from regulatory bodies to maintain high service levels”, explains Ana Clara.
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