Growing number of leaders who no longer believe in carbon neutrality by 2050

A new survey from Bain & Company released this week revealed a significant shift in perception among executives at major energy and natural resources companies. According to the survey, nearly half (44%) of industry leaders believe that global carbon neutrality will not be achieved until after 2070.

This is a projection that is much further away than the target originally established by the Paris Agreement, which predicted that this objective would be achieved by 2050. The study indicates a reversal in relation to the 2024 scenario, when only 31% of executives predicted carbon neutrality in a longer term than initially predicted.

In the oil and gas segment, the average forecast of executives points to a peak in global oil consumption around 2038. The data reinforces that, at least in the short and medium term, fossil fuels will continue to strongly supply energy demand.

For Rodrigo Más, partner at Bain & Company and leader of the Industrials and Utilities practice in South America, the results reflect what he calls a dual challenge: meeting growing demand for energy while advancing in emissions reductions.

“Decarbonization continues to be an objective, but given the challenges to achieving it, companies are adjusting priorities and deadlines to balance it with other strategic and financial objectives,” said the executive.

Financial pressure and caution in investments

The survey — which interviewed more than 700 executives from sectors such as oil, gas, electricity, mining, chemicals and agribusiness — indicates that the main barrier to moving forward with sustainable businesses is the difficulty in finding customers willing to pay more for low-carbon products and solutions.

Other obstacles mentioned include the lack of stable and supportive public policies, as well as limitations on equity and cash flow. More than 75% of those interviewed also stated that the costs of their projects had increased by at least 5% in the last year.

Technology and AI gain prominence

Despite the challenging scenario, companies have invested in digital technologies to improve project execution and operational efficiency. Almost half of leaders intend to adopt solutions such as artificial intelligence in the coming years.

The study also shows that 72% see concrete benefits in using these technologies within five to ten years, while more than 60% plan to update their ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems in the next three years.

Impact of artificial intelligence on energy consumption

Another point of attention highlighted by executives is the increase in demand for energy driven by the growth of artificial intelligence and the construction of new datacenters. Around 43% of those interviewed consider this challenge as a priority in energy planning discussions.

A Bain & Company estimates that annual energy consumption by data centers could more than double by 2027, representing 2,6% of electricity consumed globally — which would require more than US$2 trillion in investment.

To meet this new demand, energy companies’ strategies include investing in renewable generation, extending the life of existing assets and expanding natural gas-fired thermal generation capacity. In North America, about 34% of executives say nuclear energy investments are also likely to gain ground.

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