On the first day of 2026, the SIN (National Interconnected System) recorded unusual behavior that tends to lead to a change in perception about Brazil's energy dynamics, from the point of view of electricity production.
At around 8:10 AM, with a total load of 66,2 GW, solar generation was already producing more power than hydroelectric plants. This represented 26 GW from photovoltaic sources compared to 25 GW from hydroelectric power.
The fact that solar energy surpassed the main source in Brazil's energy matrix before 10 a.m. is an unprecedented detail and represents a significant, albeit expected, change in the behavior of energy supply, according to [source not specified]. published analysis this Thursday (1st), on a social network, by consultant Edvaldo Santana, former director of ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) and current executive director of NEAL (Associated Energy Businesses).
Just two hours after that milestone, Santana describes, solar production jumped to 31 GW, supplying more than 45% of the country's total load at that moment.
dominance
Comparative data, the analysis highlights, shows that the potential for expansion is even more ambitious. On December 30th, at 11:20 AM, solar power reached a production of 40 GW.
If this performance had been repeated on the January 1st holiday, approximately 65% of the entire national cargo would have been met exclusively by sunlight, Edvaldo Santana points out.
This solar dominance forced hydroelectric plants into a sharp decline, he assesses, resulting in what may have been the largest negative generation ramp ever recorded in the history of the Brazilian system. In other words, in just three hours, hydroelectric production plummeted from 54,5 GW (at 5:10 am) to just 24,3 GW (at 8:10 am).
The visual effect of this drop, if placed on a graph, would be "shocking," says Santana, highlighting the system's effort to accommodate the intermittency and growth of the solar source.
New standard
According to the professional's view, Brazil is entering a period where the "Lord of Light" (Apollo) is beginning to win systematic disputes against the "Lord of Rain." Santana points out that, since the mid-1980s, hydroelectric plants have not generated such a low volume of energy during the wet season.
However, he considers that, although the sector seems to be "upside down" with only 24 GW of hydroelectric production in the middle of the rainy season, this is the pattern that should be expected from now on, especially during holidays.
For the former director of ANEELThe frequency with which solar generation will reach the 40 GW mark or more requires the full attention of the ONS (National System Operator), which is already monitoring this transition.
Santana notes that, with solar power at such high levels, hydroelectric plants end up operating at minimum levels (sometimes generating a maximum of 20 GW) due to the need to maintain production from nuclear power plants and the inflexibility of thermal power plants.
This new configuration, Santana points out, reaffirms that solar prominence is no longer an isolated event, but the basis of the new Brazilian operational model.
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An answer
Given that the lifespan of solar panels is, in principle, shorter than that of hydroelectric turbines, even with the repowering of the latter, what should be done to maintain the production levels of the solar and wind sectors, as well as the global average, considering that new solar plants will likely be implemented and demand will grow, though not necessarily at the same rate?