Solar DG (distributed generation) in Brazil is expected to grow by approximately 8 GW in 2022, reaching a total of almost 16 GW of installed power. This is the prediction of Leandro Martins, president of Ecori, and Gustavo Tegon, business director of Ecori. Esfera Solar.
During the webinar “Trends in the photovoltaic sector for 2022”, promoted by Canal Solar This Tuesday (14), the two executives outlined the prospects for the market and highlighted what challenges are likely to arise in the next year.
“The sector should be more stabilized in 2022. All manufacturers, whether wafers, cells or modules, are increasing production, that is, they are gaining a larger scale. When you look at the future projection, no one stands still,” said Tegon.
“The chain has been growing. We are in a gold mine field. The only certainty I have is that we will install a lot,” she emphasized.
Martins also sees the prospects for the distributed generation segment in 2022 with optimism. “I project a scenario of 7,7 GW, a sector with new products recently launched at Intersolar, solutions that are increasingly intelligent and financially viable”.
In his view, the market is beginning to enter a new era. “With the entry of 5G technology in the country, we will see increasingly interactive solutions with a connectivity ecosystem towards the future of smart cities.”
Concerns for 2022
Regarding concerns, Tegon commented that, if on the one hand manufacturers have increased their production capacity and improved panel logistics, on the other hand “we have just left the COP 26 saying that everyone will become renewable”. According to him, this means that the trend is for demand to rise even further.
“France, for example, which is not very representative in solar, from one year to the next the consumption of photovoltaic panels grew by 130%. But then they say: it went from X to Y and doesn't even come close to Brazil. India has doubled and is the size of Brazil”, she explained.
According to him, the world is going through a revolution and the electricity sector is leading it. “In fact, EVs (electric vehicles) are knocking on our door.”
“What we have to do is plan correctly. From January 1st to December 31st, 2022, what could happen is that China will again accelerate projects. There is also a second big player that can do this too, which is India. At the end of next year, I guarantee that we will have a supply problem again”, highlighted the Esfera business director.
“And not just for modules. The electric car industry, for example, is creating a problem in the inverter industry, as electronic components are missing and delayed”, added the president of Ecori.
Election year: what impact on the sector?
For Gustavo Tegon, it is unlikely that any candidate will stop talking about renewables. “If they don't talk, they will certainly be out of the game. The position of the presidential candidates is very important, mainly because of the following: any nonsense they say makes the dollar rise and fall in an absurd way”.
“So, if we don't have a clear position on how Brazil will behave in the coming years, we will be at the mercy of doing nothing. At COP 26, for example, it was said that we would eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. I want to see the plan, not a speech. I want to see a plan of whoever's in there. We need to know so that our sector continues to grow,” she reported.
Updated data from GD Solar
According to data from the ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), distributed photovoltaic generation currently has 7,9 GW of installed capacity. “In 2021, if we close the growth of solar DG at 4 GW, we are talking about an increase of 70%”, said Leandro Martins.
In 2020, for example, distributed generation reached 4,7 GW of power. In 2019, it was 2,1 GW. In other words, from one year to the next there was an increase of 125%.
