Energy prices are expected to rise 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago, according to a projection released by the World Bank on Tuesday (28).
The institution warns, however, that prices could rise even further if the conflict in the Middle East continues beyond May.
The baseline scenario considers a gradual normalization of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by October, with volumes close to those recorded before the escalation of tensions.
More broadly, the World Bank projects a 16% increase in global commodity prices by 2026, driven primarily by rising energy, fertilizer, and strategic metal costs.
On Tuesday (28), oil prices rose again as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran stalled, in addition to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The region, which before the war accounted for about 35% of global maritime crude oil trade, has faced disruptions in transportation and attacks on energy infrastructure.
According to the World Bank, these factors triggered one of the largest supply shocks ever recorded. As a result, Brent crude oil had accumulated a price increase of over 50% in the last week of April compared to the beginning of the year.
With information from Reuters.
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