O Capacity Reservation Auction, scheduled for August 30th, is scheduled to hire 7,5 GW of power, according to the analysis of TR Soluções, a company specialized in technology for the electrical sector. It is estimated that 4 GW will be contracted for delivery in 2027 and the remaining 3,5 GW in 2028.
The guidelines for this auction were submitted to public consultation between March 8 and April 26, and the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) is currently evaluating the contributions. The expectation is that the notice will be published soon.
The objective of this type of auction is to contract power for the electrical system, coming from thermoelectric and hydroelectric generation sources, known as dispatchable sources.
The event will involve the negotiation of three products:
- Thermoelectric plants without operational inflexibility, with a seven-year contract, starting on July 1, 2027;
- Thermoelectric plants without operational inflexibility, with a fifteen-year contract, starting on January 1, 2028;
- Hydroelectric power for 2028, including expansions not extended or tendered under the terms of Law No. 12.783/2013, with a fifteen-year contract, starting on January 1, 2028.
According to Helder Sousa, director of Regulation at TR Soluções, the auction will be highly competitive, representing a great opportunity for the renewal of existing thermoelectric power plant contracts, whose terms are close to expiry.
“People are preparing a lot for this auction, precisely because of the possibility of rehiring the thermal plants. It’s going to be a very competitive auction,” he said in an interview with Canal Solar.
Sousa also mentioned that there are a total of 13 GW of thermoelectric capacity with contracts expiring until 2032, being mainly plants powered by diesel oil and coal, which play a crucial role in delivering power to the National Interconnected System.
The first capacity reserve auction took place in 2021, contracting 4,6 GW of power. Sousa estimates that the cost of this first auction was around R$730 per MW of available power, and that, considering inflation, this year's price could reach close to R$750 per MW.
In addition to the 7,5 GW forecast for this year, there is still 3 GW to be contracted for delivery between 2029 and 2030, according to TR Soluções projections, resulting in a total cost of R$15 billion in 2030.
According to Law No. 14.120/2021, the costs of capacity auctions will be passed on to all energy consumers, with the introduction of ERCAP (Power Charge for Capacity Reserve) from June 2026.
TR Soluções estimates that the total cost of R$15 billion will result in an ERCAP of R$23/MWh in 2030.
A ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) has launched a public consultation to regulate how ERCAP will be charged.
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