Average load growth will be 3,4% between 2023 and 2027

O ONS (National Electrical Sector Operator), the EPE (Energy Research Company) and the CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber) held, on November 30th, a workshop presenting the premises and Load Forecasts for the Annual Energy Operation Planning – 2023-2027.

Based on current results, in 2023, the expected increase is 2,7% in load, reaching the level of 71.735 MWmed, considering an increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 0,7%.

For the period 2023-2027, the indication is for a average annual load growth of 3,4%, reaching 82.584 MWmed at the end of the period and an average annual increase of 2,2% in GDP.

The economic scenario used, for the world economy, took into account the expectation of moderation in growth in 2022 and 2023, due to inflation and high interest rates, in relation to what was expected in the 2nd Quarterly Review.

The workshop organizers highlighted that load forecasts for 2023-2027 considered macroeconomic assumptions well aligned with the perspectives of the main market agents.

It was highlighted that load dynamics are impacted by factors such as weather and economic conditions. For 2023, there is an expectation of less intense activity, influenced by the adverse external scenario, fiscal concerns and the effects of monetary policy.

Such factors, according to the entities, led to the revision of GDP growth in 2023 from 1% to 0,7%. After 2024, a more favorable environment is expected, with an improvement in the international scenario, greater confidence among economic agents and expansion of domestic demand.

According to forecasts, the SIN (National Interconnected System) is expected to reach a load of 2023 MWmed in 71.735. In 2024, the prospect is that it will reach 74.359 MWmed; in 2025, at 77.063 MWmed; followed by 79.938 MWmed and, in 2027, closing the evaluated cycle, at 82.584 MWmed.