A Thymos Energia estimates that Brazil should invest US$28 billion in hydrogen low emission up to 2030, considering the projects announced by the companies.
The country can reach production of 20 million tons per year (Mt/year), including green hydrogen (renewable sources) or with CO2 capture and use systems (CCUS), considering projects that have already started construction or have decided to approved investment (FID). This amount can reach 38 Mt/year if considering projects that are in the initial stages of development.
The data are the result of a study carried out by the consultancy with the aim of analyzing the technological and regulatory aspects protocols for development of that manufacturing in the country. Hydrogen is considered a fundamental element for reducing carbon emissions in several sectors, especially in industry and heavy transport.
“This traction in investments in projects of this type is important, but still short of a scenario of net zero CO2 emissions […]. For this, a low-carbon hydrogen production capacity of around 72 Mt/year would be required (practically more than 3 times the current capacity of FID (Final Investment Decision) projects”, highlights Thymos.
Low-carbon hydrogen includes the version produced by electrolysis and through fossil fuels with CO2 capture and utilization systems (CCUS).
According to the consultancy, the large-scale production of green hydrogen (H2V) has some challenges that need to be overcome, the main ones being the production cost, lack of infrastructure, energy losses and lack of a structured market.
For the country to be able to produce H2V on a competitive basis, the production cost would have to be 2 USD/kg. This would require significant reductions in energy costs (around 50%) and electrolysers (70%). Still, it is likely that H2V will reach the end consumer at a value greater than 3 USD/kg, given the molecule's storage and transport processes.
“The cost of energy represents more than 50% of the production cost of H2V, which makes the objective of reaching the level of 2 USD/kg of H2V challenging, even in countries that have great renewable energy potential.”
The study provides a survey of the hydrogen production costs from the photovoltaic solar energy for G7 members in 2021. Values range from US$4/kg (in the cases of Germany, France and Italy) to US$8,9/kg (Japan).
In 2022, 95 million tons of hydrogen were consumed worldwide, 62% of which came from natural gas reforming, 16% oil/naphtha. 21% coal and 1% fossil fuels with CCUS system.
The National Hydrogen Plan was established in Brazil in August 2021, but since 2003 there have been initiatives for the development of this new industry in the country.
Bill No. 725/22 is also being processed in the Senate, which aims to establish mechanisms for the inclusion of hydrogen in the national energy sector. Among the incentive proposals is the inclusion of hydrogen transport via gas pipelines by 2050.
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