The transmission system in the Northeast region of Brazil could gain the capacity to connect up to an additional 4 GW of large energy consumers starting in 2032, opening up opportunities for projects such as data centers and hydrogen production plants, in one of the regions with the greatest potential for renewable energy generation in the country.
That's what a prospective study indicates. EPE (Energy Research Company) that evaluates alternatives for expanding the electricity grid in the regions of Pecém, in Ceará, and Parnaíba, in Piauí, respectively, which are centers of attraction for new industrial investments associated with the energy transition.
The recommendation is part of the "Prospective Study for the Insertion of Energy-Intensive Loads in the Northeast Region," prepared by the state-owned company to support future decisions by the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) related to the expansion of electrical infrastructure.
Progressive evolution
Instead of proposing a single, comprehensive expansion from the outset, EPE recommends a scalable configuration, allowing investments to be made as consuming projects actually progress.
According to the study, the solution was designed to accommodate any combination of loads up to the global limit of 4 GW between the two regions.
In practice, infrastructure growth can keep pace with the materialization of industrial investments, reducing the risk of over-contracting the network and preventing the premature construction of unnecessary assets.
The proposal also seeks to offer flexibility to electricity planning in the face of uncertainty about the pace of implementation of projects related to the hydrogen economy and the expansion of digital infrastructure.
Substation and lines
To enable the connection of new consumers, EPE analyzed 12 alternatives for expanding the transmission system before defining the solution considered most suitable.
The recommended set of works includes the implementation of the Pecém IV substation, at 500 kV, near the existing Pecém II and Pecém III substations, in addition to the construction of 1.848 kilometers of new 500 kV transmission lines interconnecting the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, and Piauí.
According to the study, these reinforcements not only expand the capacity to serve new consumers, but also eliminate existing restrictions between the transmission systems of the two directly benefited states.
Integration with renewables
One of the central aspects of the study is to allow the future expansion of industrial demand to occur simultaneously with the exploitation of the region's renewable potential.
According to EPE, the recommended configuration allows for the inclusion of the additional 4 GW even in scenarios of high local renewable energy production, especially from wind and solar sources.
The expectation is that the new infrastructure will reduce transmission bottlenecks and increase the region's capacity to absorb energy produced.
The idea is to create a more efficient link between areas with a strong supply of renewable energy and developments with high electricity consumption, a characteristic considered strategic for green hydrogen projects and large data processing centers.
BRL 5,68 billion in investments
The estimated cost of the alternative selected by EPE is approximately R$ 5,68 billion. Of this total, about R$ 1,09 billion corresponds to the works recommended for the initial stage, scheduled for 2032.
The remaining R$ 4,59 billion would be contingent upon the effective completion of the consumer projects, being executed gradually according to the network expansion needs.
The approach seeks to reconcile long-term transmission planning with the actual evolution of expected industrial investments in the region.
Next decade
The proposal does not yet represent a definitive investment decision, but it serves as technical input for future evaluations by the federal government regarding new transmission projects and potential network expansion auctions.
By identifying an alternative capable of accommodating up to 4 GW of new energy-intensive loads, EPE seeks to anticipate a demand that may gain relevance over the next decade, especially given the advancement of low-carbon hydrogen projects and the growing search for locations with an abundant supply of renewable energy for the installation of data centers.
The study indicates that, from the perspective of electrical infrastructure, Ceará and Piauí already have a mapped-out expansion route to receive this new investment cycle, provided that the planned projects move forward and justify the gradual implementation of the proposed reinforcements.
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