Energy demand is expected to rise 4,8% in August, driven by temperatures, says ONS.

Presented during the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) meeting, held at the end of July, the ONS (National System Operator) estimates indicate a 4,8% growth in the load of the SIN (National Interconnected System) compared to the same period in 2025, reaching an average of 81.580 MW at the end of the month.

Progress is expected in all four subsystems, with particular emphasis on the Northeast and North, both with projected expansion of 7,3%.

According to the ONS (National System Operator), the increase in load mainly reflects the expectation of temperatures at or above average throughout the country, in addition to the influence of rainfall exceeding the historical average in the Southern Region.

For the operational week between August 1st and 7th, there are indications of prospective scenarios of accelerated load demand in the SIN (National Interconnected System).

The operator states that it will continue to monitor the evolution of these scenarios to ensure that demand is met safely and reliably.

Hydrological scenario

In addition to the load growth projection, the PMO presented estimates for the main operational variables of the system. The ENA (Natural Inflow Energy) is expected to remain above the MLT (Long-Term Average) only in the Southern Region, with a forecast equivalent to 183% of the historical average.

In the Southeast/Central-West region, the expectation is for 95% of the MLT (Maximum Load Transfer), while the North and Northeast regions are expected to register 64% and 60%, respectively.

Projections for EAR (Stored Energy) show the South in the lead, with reservoirs expected to be at 89,6% of capacity by the end of the operating week.

Next in line are the North (85,8%), Northeast (75,1%) and Southeast/Central-West (61,1%) regions, which concentrate most of the country's storage capacity.

The report also indicates a Marginal Operating Cost (CMO) of R$ 114,58/MWh for the Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast submarkets, while the North presents a significantly higher projection of R$ 581,48/MWh.

Held monthly by the ONS, the PMO meeting is the main operational planning forum for the SIN (National Interconnected System).

In it, the operator presents to agents in the electricity sector and regulatory bodies the guidelines that will guide the operation of the system in the following weeks, seeking to balance security of supply and the lowest possible operating cost.

Growth trajectory

The signs of increased demand projected by the ONS (National System Operator) are supported by the most recent data released by EPE (Energy Research Company).

According to the Monthly Review of the Electricity Market, national consumption totaled 46.219 GWh in June 2026, a 2% increase compared to June 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly growth.

The advance was driven by the residential, commercial, and other sectors, which recorded increases of 4,3%, 4,0%, and 0,3%, respectively. Only the industrial sector showed a decline, of 0,2%.

Regionally, all regions increased consumption, with notable increases in the North (4,3%), Midwest (4,0%), South (3,6%), Northeast (2,5%), and Southeast (0,5%).

Over the past 12 months, national consumption reached 570.514 GWh, a growth of 0,8% compared to the previous period.

ACL on the rise.

EPE also points to the continued growth of the free energy market. In June, the Free Energy Market accounted for 46,5% of national consumption, totaling 21.491 GWh.

In a year-on-year comparison, the segment recorded growth of 2,9% in consumption and 20% in the number of consumers.

The Midwest region showed the greatest expansion in consumption in the free market, while the North led in the increase in the number of migrating consumers.

The regulated market of distributors accounted for 53,5% of national consumption, with growth of 1,2% in volume consumed and 1,9% in the number of consumers.

According to EPE, the continued migration of high-voltage consumers to the free market continues to influence the evolution of consumption in both contracting environments.

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