Electricity rates in Brazil are projected to increase by an average of 7% in 2025, according to a forecast released by... ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) in the December InfoTarifa bulletin. The percentage exceeds the inflation projected by the IPCA (4,4%) and contrasts with the IGP-M's estimated deflation of -0,5%.
The new forecast is double the previous estimate of 3,5%, released in March. The main reason was the revision of the CDE (Energy Development Account) values, completed after Public Consultation 38/2024.
This account brings together subsidies and public policies from the sector and has had its parameters updated, putting pressure on the final costs passed on to consumers.
CDE 2026 should exceed R$ 52 billion.
The report indicates that the CDE's preliminary budget for 2026 could reach R$ 52,7 billion, a 7% increase compared to 2025. This growth is linked to the expansion of public policies and the modernization of the rules for distributing charges among low, medium, and high-voltage consumers.
What influences the energy tariff adjustment in 2025?
In addition to sector-specific charges, the increase in electricity bills also takes into account variables such as:
- Costs of energy purchases by distributors;
- Review of regulatory assets;
- Individual financial adjustments for each concession;
- Exchange rate fluctuations (especially regarding Itaipu energy);
- Periodic tariff review cycles.
The Northern region will see a reduction of up to 11% in the fare.
Not all regions will see an increase. Consumers in Acre, Amapá, and Rondônia may see a reduction of up to 11% in tariffs thanks to a surplus of R$ 550 million from the hydrological risk settlement mechanism (GSF), which will be directed towards tariff moderation in local distributors.
Tax reform and regulatory changes are expected to impact future cycles.
A Law 15.269 / 2025The recently approved bill alters the CDE (Energy Development Fund) allocation model, expanding the contribution of the free market to charges previously paid only by regulated consumers. The expectation is that this will bring about:
- Slight reduction in fares in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions;
- Moderate increase in the North and Northeast during the transition phase.
White Tariff may become mandatory for high consumption.
A ANEEL He also proposed changes to the White Hourly Tariff. Low-voltage consumers who consume more than 1.000 kWh/month may be automatically migrated to this model by the end of 2026.The goal is to align energy prices with the new profile of the electricity matrix, marked by the advancement of solar generation during the day.
White tariff should become the standard for large consumers.
O InfoTarifa bulletin It also confirms the creation of a new social discount, valid from 2026. Families registered in the CadÚnico (Single Registry for Social Programs), with income between half and one minimum wage and who do not qualify for the Social Tariff, will be exempt from the CDE (Energy Development Contribution) charge for the first 120 kWh consumed, which can reduce the bill by up to 15%.
Another highlight is a report that quantifies the effects of tariff flagsSince 2015, the mechanism has avoided approximately R$ 13 billion in interest payments by allowing the immediate transfer of variable generation costs and preventing these amounts from accumulating until subsequent tariff adjustments.
Already Law 15.235 / 2025 It redefines the cost allocation for the Angra 1 and 2 nuclear power plants. Starting in 2026, these costs will be distributed among all consumers in the SIN (National Interconnected System), except for beneficiaries of the Social Tariff, a change that should reduce tariffs for captive consumers by approximately 0,6%.
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