Global demand for air conditioning could triple by 2050, warns UN.

Global cooling capacity is projected to increase exponentially, potentially more than tripling by 2050, according to the UNEP's (United Nations Environment Programme) Global Cooling Watch 2025 report, released during COP30.

Expansion, driven by global warming and population and income growth, represents a double risk. There will be overload on electricity grids during peak demand, in addition to the risk of doubling emissions related to cooling.

The report details the projected leap in cooling infrastructure. Global capacity is expected to increase from 22 TW in 2022 to 68 TW in 2050. Consequently, emissions from cooling could rise from 4,1 Gt (gigatons) to 7,2 Gt in the same period.

Demand is growing most rapidly in regions such as Africa and South Asia, where the uncontrolled adoption of air conditioning is already threatening to overload power grids, causing power outages and increasing generation costs.

More than 1 billion people affected.

Refrigeration, which includes cooling spaces for comfort and safety, industrial refrigeration, and cold chains for food and medicine, is considered an essential infrastructure.

However, this race has a serious social cost. It is estimated that more than 1 billion people already lack access to adequate cooling, and if no new measures are adopted, this number could triple by 2050.

This contributes to hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths each year, bearing in mind that heat waves represent the deadliest climate risk.

UNEP proposes what it calls a Sustainable Cooling Pathway to balance mitigation and adaptation. This path combines passive design, low-energy and hybrid options, and the rapid adoption of high-efficiency equipment, along with accelerating the reduction of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Implementing this roadmap could result in a 64% reduction in emissions by 2050.

Incentive for induced cooling

A passive approach is highlighted as a key step in this mitigation. Passive, low-energy cooling is responsible for about two-thirds of the total emissions reduction.

The report emphasizes that making passive cooling mandatory through building codes is the strongest lever to prevent the overuse of mechanical cooling.

The economic argument for the transition indicates cumulative energy savings of approximately US$17 trillion, which would allow for the avoidance of up to US$26 trillion in investments in the electricity grid by 2050.

Furthermore, if the electricity grid is decarbonized, emissions related to cooling could be reduced by up to 97% by 2050.

Global engagement is growing, with 72 countries joining the Global Commitment to Cool, which aims for a 68% reduction in emissions from this sector by 2050.

all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.