Forecasts of more favorable rainfall for the beginning of July have led to a drop in electricity prices traded on the free market. The declines were recorded in the main contracts traded on the BBCE platform and reflect the expected improvement in hydrological conditions for the SIN (National Interconnected System).
The biggest movement occurred in the conventional energy contract with supply in July. The price fell from R$ 174,50/MWh to R$ 149,58/MWh, a decrease of 14,28% compared to the previous week.
There was also a reduction in contracts with delivery in August. Negotiations went from R$ 230,60/MWh to R$ 183,50/MWh, a drop of 9,87%.
For September, the price fell 6,57%, from R$ 248,25/MWh to R$ 231,93/MWh. Contracts for the third quarter closed the week quoted at R$ 187,92/MWh, compared to R$ 205,69/MWh the previous week. The reduction was 8,64%.
The drop in prices coincides with improved expectations for inflows in the country's main river basins.
According to the July PMO (Monthly Operation Program), prepared by the ONS (National System Operator), the forecast for the first operational week, between June 27 and July 3, indicates inflows equivalent to 102% of the LTA (Long-Term Average) in the Southeast/Central-West region and 172% of the LTA in the South region.
This scenario is a result of unstable weather patterns and the passage of a cold front over the southern region, favoring rainfall and improving reservoir storage levels.
Contract from 2027 leads negotiations.
Despite the drop in prices in short-term contracts, the largest trading volume of the week was concentrated in the 2027 annual product.
In total, 850 GWh were traded in the contract, the highest volume recorded among the products traded on BBCE during the period. This indicates that agents continue to seek predictability for their long-term energy costs, even in the face of improved hydrological conditions in the short term.
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