November begins with projected above-average inflows in two of the country's largest subsystems.

The outlook for water inflow into the country's reservoirs remains favorable in two of the main hydroelectric power regions.

According to projections from the ONS (National Electric System Operator), published in the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the period of November 7 to 13, the scenario is highly positive for the areas that drive most of the national economy.

The report indicates that the ENA (Natural Inflow Energy) — an indicator that measures the energy potential of the water flow reaching hydroelectric plants — is expected to end the month above the MLT (Long-Term Average) in the South and Southeast/Central-West regions. Together, these two subsystems concentrate approximately 80% of all the country's energy..

The most significant projection is for the Southern region, where water inflow is expected to reach 247% of the historical average. In the Southeast/Central-West region, which alone accounts for about 70% of the storage capacity of Brazilian reservoirs, the expectation is for 138% of the long-term average.

In contrast, the outlook is one of concern for the other subsystems: the Northeast is expected to register 60% of the average, while the North is projected to close the period with 51%.

Reservoirs and the influence of El Niño

Storage conditions also show significant differences between regions, because, at the end of the projected period, EAR (Stored Energy) levels are expected to reach 92,9% in the South and 58,3% in the Southeast/Central-West. In the Northeast, the expectation is 56,7%, while the North could reach 47,5%.

The ONS (National System Operator) links the prospect of above-average rainfall in the South to the effects of El Niño on the Brazilian climate regime. The operator also monitors other hydrological scenarios and maintains its planning of preventive measures to preserve the security of the system and the continuity of electricity supply.

Demand is expected to grow by 7,2%.

The report also projects an expansion in energy demand across all subsystems when comparing November 2026 to the same month last year.

For the SIN (National Interconnected System), the estimated increase is 7,2%, with an average demand of 87.995 MW. The largest percentage growth is expected to occur in the Northeast, with an increase of 12,7% and a projected load of 15.869 MW on average.

In the North, the projected expansion is 8,5%, reaching an average of 9.723 MW. The Southeast/Central-West region should register an increase of 6,6%, reaching an average of 48.027 MW. In the South, the expected increase is 2,8%, with an average of 14.377 MW.

In the CMO (Marginal Cost of Operation) projections, the values ​​for the Southeast/Central-West and Northeast regions are the same, at R$ 22,23. In the South, the indicator is estimated at R$ 4,25, while in the North it reaches R$ 289,25, representing the largest difference between the subsystems.

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