The projection for the growth of electricity load in Brazil in 2024 is 3,5%, reaching 78.447 average MW, as indicated by a new study.
In the period from 2024 to 2028, the average rate of expansion of demand in the SIN (National Interconnected System) is estimated at 3,2%. These estimates already include the impact of distributed generation and integration of Roraima into the SIN in October 2025.
The data was released last Tuesday (5) and is the result of a conjoint analysis involving the participation of CCEE (Electricity Trading Chamber), of the ONS (National System Operator) and the EPE (Energy research company).
The forecasts take into account a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate of 2,0% in 2024, 2,2% in 2025, 2,3% in 2026, 2,5% in 2027 and 3,0% in 2028.
The analysis highlights lower inflationary pressure as relevant positive factors, enabling Selic rate reduction; the favorable performance of the labor market; policies to stimulate economic activity, such as Desenrola Brasil and the new PAC (Growth Acceleration Program); in addition to forwarding the tax reform, even if it occurs less intensely in the analyzed time horizon.
However, the entities identify as significant risks to the realization of this scenario issues related to geopolitics, public health, climate change, as well as inflationary dynamics and the management of fiscal issues.
See the growth forecast for each submarket
Click here to access the full study.
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