According to the latest projections from BNEF (BloombergNEF), the EVs (electric vehicles) will account for more than 50% of global sales by the mid-2030s. “As a result of the battery price drop, EVs should already reach parity, that is, become competitive with combustion vehicles in the mid-20s. However, it is worth highlighting that this forecast is not for all countries”, explained Luiza Demoro, Head of Country Transition Trends at BNEF.
For the expert, in the case of Brazil, for example, such parity will not happen anytime soon due to the biofuel potential that the country presents. However, in the United States and many European nations it will probably occur as early as 2024.
“So, as this change will be big and fast, we estimate that sales of electrified cars will surpass those powered by fossil fuels in the middle of the next decade in developed countries. This, for a period of 10, 15 years, is a very radical change”, reported Luiza.
According to her, this situation will impact many things, such as an even greater acceleration in the drop in technology prices, the development of other technologies and an exponential increase in electricity demand.
Emerging countries
The BloombergNEF researcher also pointed out that the trend being seen in emerging countries, at least for the beginning of this transition, is electrification in fleets and not in passenger vehicles. “We are seeing more initiatives for bus fleets. I think this is the first step that Brazil will take,” she commented.
A city of Indaiatuba (SP), for example, is already contributing to this sustainable proposal by implementing a project to replace its fleet of conventional cars with electric models. According to CPFL Energia, one of the companies responsible for the initiative, the action is unprecedented in Brazil because it involves operational vehicles with implements, adapted for field operations with a van and pickup truck with cabinets for technical-commercial services, a truck with a central ladder and a truck with an aerial basket.
Another project focused on electrification is that of the energy company EDP, which in partnership with BYD and Unesp (Universidade Estadual Paulista) developed, at the end of last year, the first Brazilian electric bus powered by solar energy for commercial purposes. The vehicle, designed at the Pecém UTE (thermoelectric plant), in Ceará, uses a battery bank that guarantees a range of 300 km.
In addition to this, BYD launched the new version of eT3 van in Brazil. According to the manufacturer, the 100% electric car has innovative technology and resources with greater profitability. The model features a new battery pack, which reduced the vehicle's weight from 1870 kg to 1700 kg.
