Rainfall is expected to be below average in March and prices are expected to rise

Energy prices continue to rise despite reservoir recovery; change in model explains this behavior

2 min 27 sec read

Rainfall is expected to be below the historical average in the third month of the year, according to initial projections released by the ONS (National System Operator) last Friday (28). This indicates that energy prices on the Free Market are expected to rise even further at the beginning of the year.

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The North region should reach the highest level of (ENA) Natural Affluent Energy, with 95% of the MLT (Long Term Average). Next comes the Southeast/Central-West (65%), South (55%) and Northeast, with 28% of the MLT

Although three subsystems have comfortable storage levels for this time of year, energy prices are more sensitive to rainfall forecasts since the introduction of Newave Hybrid from January 2025 – a significant change in the parameters of the computational models responsible for forming the energy price.

The normal thing would be for prices to be low, since reservoirs in three subsystems have storage levels above 70%:

North (95,9%);
Northeast (80,2%);
Southeast/Central-West (71,6%), the latter concentrates 70% of the reservoirs of greatest interest to the SIN (National Interconnected System);
South, whose indicator should be 37,2%.

In the graph below, it is possible to see the behavior of Conventional and 50% Incentivized energy prices, in R$/MWh, over the first two months of this year.

Source: Simple Energy

According to consultancy DCIDE, energy prices in the first quarter already exceed R$300/MWh, even with hydroelectric reservoirs in the storage recovery phase.

Increased energy demand

Another factor that has put pressure on energy prices is high temperatures, which have increased energy demand in the country.

In January, the verified demand of the SIN totaled 83.152 MWmed, which represents an expansion of 4,4% compared to the same period in 2024. The acceleration was more expressive in the South, 9,1% (15.099 MWmed), and in the North, 5,7% (7.656 MWmed).

For the other submarkets, the variation was as follows: Southeast/Central-West with 4% (47.077 MWmed) and Northeast with 0,3% (13.320 MWmed).

For February, the expectation is that the verified load will reach 88.670 MWmed, a growth that could reach 6,5% in the annual comparison.

For the Southeast/Central-West, which has recorded above-average temperatures for the period, the largest increase is expected, 7,9% (50.781 MWmed), followed by the South, 6,6% (16.597 MWmed). The growth indicated for the North and Northeast is 3,5% (7.622 MWmed) and 2,8% (13.670 MWmed), respectively.

“We continue to prioritize the best use of the country’s energy resources and the recovery of the main reservoirs. The SIN continues to fully meet the load demands, which should remain high since we will continue to record above-average temperatures,” said Marcio Rea, general director of the ONS, in a press release.

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Wagner Freire

Wagner Freire is a journalist graduated from FMU. He worked as a reporter for Jornal da Energia, Canal Energy and Agência Estado. Covering the electricity sector since 2011. Has experience in covering events such as energy auctions, conventions, lectures, fairs, congresses and seminars.