O central bank released this week the new financial market forecast for the HICP (Broad National Consumer Price Index), an indicator that measures the country's official inflation.
According to the bulletin, the estimate for 2023 fell from 5,95% to 5,93%, with inflation becoming more controlled over the following years: 4,13% in 2024 and 4% in 2025 and 2026.
The estimate, however, is above the target set by the CMN (National Monetary Council) – which would be 3,25% for 2023, with a tolerance range of 1,5 percentage points up or down.
Even so, with the estimated reduction, the basic interest rate should also fall in the coming years, according to the Central Bank. Currently, the Selic is at 13,75% per year and the expectation is that it will end the year at 12,75%.
For 2024, the projection is that interest rates will fall to 10% and remain at 9% between 2025 and 2026, respectively.
According to Bernardo Marangon, director of Exata Energia, if the behavior of inflation and the basic interest rate follows the patterns presented by the projections, the solar energy sector would benefit in terms of investments and financing, especially in micro and mini distributed generation projects.
According to data from the Greener, Currently, more than 70% of photovoltaic systems in Brazil are acquired through financing.
“I believe that depending on the nature of the investment, the current rate is already attractive. However, if it decreases, it would be even better, as it would reduce the return time on investments”, he highlighted.
Dollar price
The Central Bank also brought expectations for the dollar exchange rate in the coming years. The projection estimates that at the end of 2023 the American currency will be at a level similar to that of today, at R$5,25.
By the end of 2024, the value should rise to R$5,30 – which, according to Marangon, should not hinder the growth of the solar sector in terms of importing new technologies, since the price of equipment has been falling throughout of years.
“Predicting the behavior of the dollar is perhaps the most difficult prediction of all, however, if it behaves like this, I believe it does not worry the solar sector given that we have been operating at this level for some time”, he pondered.
