China is expected to control nearly 40% of the global lithium extraction market by 2030, says Wood Mackenzie.

China is on track to control nearly 40% of all lithium mined in the world by 2030, according to a new analysis published by wood mackenzie this Monday (25).

The move reinforces China's growing influence over the battery supply chain, considered strategic for the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors.

Currently, the country already dominates a large part of the world's battery manufacturing. Now, according to the consultancy, Chinese companies are also rapidly expanding their presence in the extraction of the main mineral used in these systems.

Meanwhile, Australia's share (which for years led global lithium production) is expected to fall from 43% in 2020 to 25% by the end of the decade, losing its global leadership to China, whose share was 24%.

Besides China, Wood Mackenzie also predicts accelerated growth in lithium production in other regions, mainly in Africa, which should account for 13% of world production by 2030. In 2020, this share was practically zero.

“Production growth is becoming more geographically diversified, but asset ownership remains concentrated in a few companies,” said Allan Pedersen, research director at Wood Mackenzie.

The consultancy also highlights that Chinese mining companies have been filling spaces left by Western investors, who have adopted a more cautious stance on new mining projects.

What does this change for the storage market?

China's advance in lithium comes at a time of strong global expansion of battery-based energy storage systems.

The expectation is that demand for the mineral will continue to grow in the coming years, driven by the expansion of electric cars, advances in energy storage, and the need for more flexible electrical systems with greater participation from renewable sources.

"As governments intensify efforts to secure supply chains for critical minerals, the concentration of lithium ownership in different producing regions will continue to be a growing strategic and political concern," the consultancy highlights.

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