CMSE will bring forward thermal plants to strengthen energy security

The CMSE (Electric Sector Monitoring Committee) recommended bringing forward the operation of a set of thermoelectric plants contracted in the first LRCAP (Capacity Reserve Auction), held in 2021. 

The measure is preventive in nature and aims to increase energy security, given the possible risk of a power deficit in the second half of this year.

Originally, these plants were only supposed to start operating in July 2026. With the new guideline, the expectation is that the projects will start their commercial operations from August 2025.

The ONS (National Electric System Operator) had already signaled the possibility of a power deficit in 2025. So much so that the second LRCAP — scheduled to take place in June of this year, but later canceled — provided for contracts with immediate delivery.

According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the anticipation of thermal power plants is preventive in nature. According to the portal's investigation MegaWhat, the plants total 2,3 GW of power and use natural gas, diesel oil and fuel oil. The projects that may have their operations brought forward are:

• Parnaíba IV Thermal Power Plant (56,28 MW)

• Potiguar (48,14 MW)

• Potiguar III (51,46 MW)

• Global I (136,4 MW)

• Global II (136,3 MW)

• Viana (174,6 MW)

• Geramar I (165,87 MW)

• Geramar II (165,87 MW)

• Termorio (1.000 MW)

• Ibirité (226 MW)
  

It is worth remembering that, in October 2024, the government had already authorized the early start of operations of Termopernambuco (550 MW), powered by natural gas, also contracted in the 2021 LRCAP.

Situation of the Southern subsystem is worrying

The CMSE also expressed concern about reservoir levels in the Southern subsystem, which are expected to close May with only 31% of storage capacity.

To mitigate risks, the committee recommended that the ONS step up efforts to reduce the outflow of hydroelectric plants into the basins of the Southern region. In addition, the transfer of energy between submarkets will be maximized, which may include the dispatch of thermoelectric generation outside the merit order close to load centers, with the aim of increasing the limits of energy exchange for the South or replacing it with local resources.

National Interconnected System Conditions

In April, the passage of cold fronts favored the occurrence of rain in the Southeast basins, but the Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) remained below the historical average in all submarkets. The percentages in relation to the MLT (Long Term Average) were:

• Southeast/Central-West: 84%

• South: 64%

• Northeast: 31%

• North: 79%
  

For May, in the most positive scenario, the forecasts are:

• Southeast/Central-West: 82%

• South: 58%

• Northeast: 45%

• North: 62%
  

For the SIN (National Interconnected System) as a whole, the forecast inflow is 71% of the MLT, the 17th lowest value in a historical series of 95 years.

Reservoir levels

In April, the storage levels of the subsystems were:

• Southeast/Central-West: 70%

• South: 40%

• Northeast: 77%

• North: 97%

• SIN (overall average): 71%
  

For the end of May, in the least favorable scenario, the predicted indexes are:

• Southeast/Central-West: 70%

• South: 31%

• Northeast: 73%

• North: 98%

• SIN: 69%
  

In the most optimistic scenario, the projections are:

• Southeast/Central-West: 70%

• South: 35%

• Northeast: 74%

• North: 98%

• SIN: 70%

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