The commercial volume of solar panel imports in the first half of 2025 showed a drop of US$566 million compared to the same period in 2024. The amount traded fell from US$1,463 billion to US$897 million – a reduction of 39%, according to the most recent indicator released by ABINEE (Brazilian Association of the Electrical and Electronic Industry).
Although it does not have statistics on the quantities of equipment that entered the country in both periods, the entity attributes this significant negative variation in values mainly to a substantial drop in prices observed in the global market.
ABINEE estimates that, from 2023 to date, photovoltaic module prices have fallen by around 60%. This is despite the import tax increases determined by the Federal Government throughout 2024, which increased from 9,5% to 25%.
“Therefore, the tax increase did not harm the consumer, who did not notice the price increase due to the continuous devaluation of imported and national modules,” says Roberto Barbieri, advisor in the Electric Energy Generation, Transmission and Distribution area at ABINEE.
Although he admits that the centralized generation segment – represented by large photovoltaic plants – is facing difficulties, the executive highlights, on the other hand, that the distributed generation market – installations on residential, industrial and commercial rooftops – remains quite stimulated.
Expected retraction
In evaluating the ABSOLAR (Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy), the explanation for the 39% drop in solar panel imports between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 is more complex. This effect is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic, microeconomic, and sectoral factors.
Rodrigo Sauaia, the association's executive president, reports that the organization had already anticipated a decrease in the volume of solar power to be added in its market projection for 2025. The reduction is expected to reach 1,6 GW, from 15 GW achieved in 2024 to 13,4 GW this year.
In the case of centralized generation, problems such as the alleged flow reversal for the connection of new projects, generation cuts (curtailment), rising interest rates, increased tax burdens, and reduced Chinese incentives for equipment exports, among other aspects, have increased the perception of risk in the assessment of both entrepreneurs and investors.
"This leads to the review, freezing, or even cancellation of planned projects, making investment in new ventures more difficult until there is a solution to financially compensate for the cuts," Sauaia points out, specifically in relation to the issue of curtailment.
Despite the current challenges, the outlook for the solar energy sector in Brazil is optimistic in the medium and long term, with the photovoltaic source on track to become number 1 in the Brazilian electricity matrix, guarantees the president of ABSOLARThe speed of this evolution, however, will depend on public policies and the regulatory environment, he says.
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With tariffs and more tariffs, what did they want? Blame it on the bum. Actually, on the bum and the lamppost.