The next oil crisis will be won on rooftops and with batteries.

For a long time, energy security was treated as synonymous with contracting for more fuel, expanding fossil fuel reserves, and scrambling for emergency solutions whenever an international crisis pushed prices down. The problem is that this model has aged. And it has aged badly.

The new policy advisory from IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) stems precisely from the observation that geopolitical shocks over oil and gas spread rapidly throughout the economy, putting pressure on inflation, transportation, supply chains, and the cost of living, especially for the most vulnerable.

In response, the agency recommends the exact opposite of the traditional prescription: distributed renewable generation, mini-grids with solar and batteries, time-of-use pricing, electrification, storage, grid reinforcement, and clear regulatory frameworks to accelerate the transition.

The most important point of the document is not technological. It is strategic. IRENA makes it clear that renewables should no longer be seen solely as an environmental or climate agenda. They have become national resilience infrastructure.

The advisory highlights that, by 2025, the world will have added 692 GW of renewable capacity and that 91% of new utility-scale renewable capacity already delivers energy at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternative. It also notes a sharp historical drop in the costs of solar, onshore wind, and batteries.

When the numbers add up better and geopolitical risk also decreases, the discussion shifts to a new level. It's no longer a question of whether solar and storage "fit" into the system. It's about recognizing that, without them, the system becomes more expensive, more exposed, and more fragile.

IRENA itself emphasizes that solar and battery solutions are moving towards delivering firm energy at competitive cost ranges, as well as significantly reducing diesel dependence in remote areas. In other words: storage is not a transition accessory. It is a central part of 21st-century energy security.

The international examples cited by the agency also deserve attention. Countries that have made greater progress in solar, wind, batteries, and electrification were less exposed to the recent shock. Spain and Portugal appear as cases of greater relative protection; the European Union, with the expansion of solar and wind, avoided significant additional fossil fuel costs; and experiences in countries such as Pakistan, India, and Cuba show that distributed systems can protect families, communities, and productive activities when imported fuels become more expensive or scarce.

For Brazil, the message is straightforward. A country with a clear solar vocation, with millions of consumers sensitive to tariffs, and with extensive areas where flexibility and reliability matter as much as expanding supply, should not treat storage, distributed generation, and tariff modernization as peripheral issues. The Brazilian solar sector needs to be seen not only as a supplier of megawatts, but as a concrete tool for economic protection, predictability, and systemic stability.

This applies to residential consumers, who seek to reduce their exposure to electricity bills and gain autonomy. It applies to commerce and industry, which need predictable energy to invest. It applies to essential public services. And above all, it applies to the design of public policy. What today seems like a sectoral agenda will tomorrow be demanded as a state agenda.

The correct interpretation of IRENA's warning is simple: the next global energy crisis will not be addressed solely through more centralized supply and greater reliance on volatile fuels. It will be addressed through generation close to the load, batteries, demand response, smarter grids, and well-designed electrification.

Those who understand this sooner will suffer less. Those who delay will pay a higher price, in tariffs, competitiveness, and regulatory delays. In the solar sector, this shouldn't be a controversial thesis. It should be the new consensus.

Technical basis: IRENA, From Energy Crisis to Energy Security: Actions for Policy Makers (April 2026).

The opinions and information expressed are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the author. Canal Solar.